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Fed in a bind as 'narrative wars' take hold
Just over four months into 2024 and inflation has upended earlier forecasts. Salman Ahmed explains why that means more volatility ahead.
Chart Room: What Japan’s ‘mother machines’ tell us about the world’s manufacturing pulse
The recent trend in Japan’s machine tool orders paints a positive picture for manufacturing in 2024. But investors should be wary of unchartered territory.
Analyst Survey 2024: Ready for a reset
The past two years have been marked by a fear of how bad the first sustained slowdown since 2008 might become. Our annual survey offers hopeful signs.
Fed deals its cards early on rates
Fed deals its cards early on rates
The Investor's Guide to China podcast: In conversation with Louis-Vincent Gave
In this special edition of The Investor’s Guide to China, Catherine Yeung, Investment Director, is joined in Hong Kong by Gavekal's Louis-Vincent Gave.
Chart Room: China’s tourists tiptoe out again
Where tourists went and how they spent during China's first ‘Golden Week’ holiday since zero-Covid ended says a lot about their confidence and changing tastes.
The Investor's Guide to China podcast: Japanification
When you look at some of the big economic issues China is dealing with today, you quickly realise Japan has been through a lot of the same challenges.
Fed holds the line, hopes for a soft landing
Chairman Powell has set his sights on a gentler slowdown, but the impact of higher effective interest rates may hit consumers and companies hard next year.
Chart Room: China’s heavy machine makers dig deeper overseas
China’s machinery firms are making new inroads abroad, seeking profitability that’s built to last as demand falls and competition intensifies at home.
Chart Room: Building a bigger bloc of BRICS
With one country continuing to pull far more economic weight than everybody else, the significance of BRICS expansion will be more diplomatic than economic.
Field Notes: How to weigh China’s barbell-shaped consumer recovery
Despite challenges facing China's economy, some of the country's consumer companies are gaining market share, in some cases by exploring new niche categories.
The Investor's Guide to China podcast: De-dollarisation
When it comes to currencies, it often feels like it's all about the US dollar. Although the greenback has dominated international trade and finance for decades
Chart Room: Cracks in credit will see gravity kick in
The evidence of strain in the financial system is growing amid a sharp tightening of credit conditions.
BOJ: Patience is virtue
At its June meeting, the Bank of Japan has retained its dovish bias, and we believe markets will price in a lower possibility of an imminent exit from YCC.
Chart Room: Retail therapy for Japan’s ‘lowflation’ headache
The Bank of Japan has struggled to convince the public that inflation will stick. But recent data shows there could be a shift in consumers’ mentality.
Chart Room: Getting China’s youth back to work
The job prospects are still gloomy for young people in China, and the picture may get worse before it gets better.
Chart Room: Is the US labour market ready to crack?
The latest survey of Fidelity sector analysts shows expectations of layoffs by US and European companies over the next year.
Chart Room: Employee welfare is still a priority
Companies’ recent push to focus on employee wellbeing is unlikely to fade, even as an economic downturn puts pressure on business
The Vegas of the East at a crossroads
Macau’s tourism-dependent economy was hit hard by Covid-19. Now, the Chinese casino hub aims to turn a crisis into an opportunity to reinvent itself.
New world, new playbook
We move into 2023 in a changed world, and the opportunities and challenges will be different for investors going forward.
US midterms and a history of stock market gains
The division of power after US midterm elections has led to calmer stock markets and positive investment returns. 2023 may yet prove more of an exception.
A dovish hike but Fed may be forced to do more
A dovish hike but Fed may be forced to do more as labour market remains strong
Chart Room: Fingers in the punch bowl
Central bankers seeking to deploy rate hikes against inflation risk collateral damage as tighter policy threatens already swollen debt servicing costs.
Chart Room: Home is where the supply shortage is
Supply has never looked tighter in the US housing market. Construction backlogs persist and prices climb as homebuyers appear undeterred by looming rate hikes.
Chart Room: Digging into China’s GDP growth
A sharp decline in excavator utilisation reflects China’s property-and-infrastructure-induced slowdown, but it also boosts the case for strong policy response.
Biden is the change candidate in the US elections
Democrat hopeful Joe Biden is the current favourite to win in November's US presidential elections, but it is too early to take a firm view.
The Fidelity Leading Indicator finds a floor
The FLI now points to a quarterly contraction about 125 per cent of the magnitude of that seen in the depth of the GFC.
FLI takes another leg down despite lockdowns easing
The FLI now points to a quarterly contraction about 125 per cent of the magnitude of that seen in the depth of the GFC.
ECB pleases markets with additional €600bn stimulus
The central bank has increased the size of its pandemic stimulus package to €1.35 trillion
Massive US fiscal package needs effective implementation
A rescue package for ‘Main Street’ has been agreed. This far-reaching deal unlocks funds to support the US economy, but implementation is crucial.
Coronavirus: will there be a global recession?
Market expectations of intervention remain high.
How to navigate China's economic lockdown
The Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak has delivered an exogenous shock to China’s economy, one that has ramifications for global growth.
Cool Heads: Ian Samson and Andrea Iannelli on growth and inflation
Ben Deane sets out what’s been driving inflation, Ian Samson explains his outlook for the coming months and Andrea Iannelli examines what it means for markets.
Fidelity Leading Indicator: Stronger data indicate a recovery
Improvement in global growth has been reassuringly broad-based
China’s April data disappoints market expectations of resilience
Data on industrial production, retail sales and investment all surprised to the downside.
GEAR update: US and Japan join the slowdown
GEAR update: US and Japan join the slowdown
Fidelity Leading Indicator: Qualified optimism or qualified pessimism
Our proprietary Fidelity Leading Indicator (FLI) is edging up towards the ‘top-left’ quadrant, which suggests that a trough could be approaching.
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