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Outlook 2024: Four ways forward

By Richard Edgar Editor in Chief

Remarkable changes across economies and markets, combined with a year of political uncertainty, make forecasting unusually difficult in 2024. Instead, we offer four potential paths the world could take, each assigned with its own probability.

Remarkable changes across economies and markets, combined with a year of political uncertainty, make forecasting unusually difficult in 2024. Instead, we offer four potential paths the world could take, each assigned with its own probability.

Outlook 2024: More risk, higher yields, and four ways forward
Outlook 2024: More risk, higher yields, and four ways forward

Profound changes across economies and markets make forecasting unusually difficult in 2024. Instead, we offer four potential paths the world could take.

The economy in 2024: Something will give
The economy in 2024: Something will give

If US and other developed world interest rates have not peaked already, they will do so soon. And growth will stall. We give four potential scenarios for 2024.

Outlook scenario 1: Cyclical recession - our base case
Outlook scenario 1: Cyclical recession - our base case

A cyclical recession would see a moderate economic contraction followed by a return to growth in late 2024 or early 2025.

Outlook scenario 2: Soft landing
Outlook scenario 2: Soft landing

A soft-landing scenario would involve a slightly below trend slowdown across major economies, with no major shocks to knock markets off track.

Outlook scenario 3: Balance sheet recession
Outlook scenario 3: Balance sheet recession

A balance sheet recession would be marked by a deep and prolonged downturn across developed and emerging economies.

Outlook scenario 4: No landing
Outlook scenario 4: No landing

In a no landing scenario, US economic growth would continue to be resilient while Europe’s current slowdown would reverse.

Asia outlook: Riding the growth momentum
Asia outlook: Riding the growth momentum

China’s economic slowdown and the resilience of the US dollar have dimmed the lustre of Asian economies. But the growth story should continue in 2024.

Sustainability outlook: Focus on regulation and nature in 2024
Sustainability outlook: Focus on regulation and nature in 2024

The urgency to reach net zero and stop nature loss is leading to increasingly complex markets in need of more policy direction.

Rich Pickings podcast: Outlook 2024
Rich Pickings podcast: Outlook 2024

Richard Edgar is joined by Fidelity's heads of investment to discuss the investment outlook for 2024.

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