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Fed delivers on the hint - hard landing risks have risen
The Fed delivered on hint to raise rates by 75bp to bring down inflation. We see increased risks of a hard landing and remain cautious on equities and credit.
ECB: Too much too soon could be a riskier strategy
The European Central Bank lays out its tightening path.
Chart Room: Valuations look more reasonable but there may be more to come
Chart Room: Valuations look more reasonable but there may be more to come
The last of the doves: BoJ unlikely to change course anytime soon
The last of the doves: BoJ unlikely to change course anytime soon
Now and zen: Japan’s quiet rise
Inflation may be a scourge elsewhere, but Japan is unruffled. Instead, the world’s third-largest economy is showcasing its appeal to investors.
Chart Room: As others hike rates, can China’s easing policy remain a cut above?
Cuts to the reserve requirement ratio remain China’s monetary policy weapon of choice. How they are wielded highlights the tightrope policymakers must walk.
50, not 75, is the new 25 - Temporary relief or start of a pivot?
While the Fed will likely hike less than market expectations, we expect the hawkish stance to remain for now.
Chart Room: US yield curve could steepen further out
We are sceptical of the economic scenarios implied by the current pricing of the medium and long parts of the US yield curve.
China as a new safe haven?
Looming stagflation and war effects have global investors searching for havens. China represents a less conventional option with diversification benefits.
Fed resurrects Volckerism - but for how long?
The US central bank came out fighting after delivering its first rise in rates this cycle, but it is likely to be constrained by a cocktail of risks to growth
ECB faces huge dilemma as Russian invasion of Ukraine unfolds
The ECB’s accelerated reduction in asset purchases came as a surprise. There may be more changes to come.
Searching for safe havens amid a stagflation shock
High inflation and damaged growth will define the macro outlook for several quarters
Chart Room: Ukraine war cuts rate hike expectations
Rate expectations have dipped downwards in Europe and the US, but we expect the Federal Reserve to stick to its hawkish narrative for now.
Stagflation risks intensify as energy markets take centre stage
Stagflation risks intensify as energy markets take centre stage
Russian and Ukrainian debt comes under pressure
Our base case from a fixed income perspective is now for a more severe and protracted conflict.
Cautious positioning required as Ukraine escalation adds to stagflationary risks
The overnight escalation of the Russia-Ukraine crisis is a worrying development with serious macro and market implications.
Chart Room: Rising rates aren’t always bad for ‘low vol’ strategies
Rising bond yields don’t automatically mean bad news for low volatility strategies; understanding why requires a closer look at each cycle of rate increases.
Chart Room: Fingers in the punch bowl
Central bankers seeking to deploy rate hikes against inflation risk collateral damage as tighter policy threatens already swollen debt servicing costs.
ECB joins the hawkish bandwagon
Hawkish pivot gives the Governing Council more policy flexibility.
China walks a familiar tightrope as it targets recovery
While most other major economies are moving to tighten, the construction-fueled stimulus that Beijing has sought to avoid is suddenly back on the cards.
Chart Room: Covid recovery tops the list of themes for 2022
Latest survey of Fidelity analysts reveals companies' key concerns for the next 12 months.
Fed turns from friend to foe
Pace and extent of tightening cycle depends on the inflation dynamics and the terminal level of real rates the economy and markets can digest.
Chart Room: Home is where the supply shortage is
Supply has never looked tighter in the US housing market. Construction backlogs persist and prices climb as homebuyers appear undeterred by looming rate hikes.
Catch-2022 policy dilemma hits markets
Central bank policy stance and geopolitical risks put pressure on markets.
China cuts rates despite solid GDP report
As China's cycle increasingly diverges from the West, the latest set of policy easing measures speaks to economic headwinds but also signals more stimulus.
Hawkish Fed enters 2022 with a catch
Three rate hikes in 2022 could be a challenge.
The Fed finds flexibility in QE tapering
The Fed finds flexibility in QE tapering timeline
Fed signals a fast taper as 2022 becomes the new lift-off battleground
Fed signals a fast taper as 2022 becomes the new lift-off battleground
Asia eyes a tantrum-free taper this time
A faster-than-expected tapering by the Federal Reserve remains a risk for Asian bond markets, but investors have been reassured by the latest policy signals.
Fed disconnects timelines for tapering and rate rises
At the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, Federal Reserve chairman Powell confirmed that the test of "substantial further progress" on inflation has now been met.
Chart Room: Bond markets tempt FAIT amid prospects for a steeper US yield curve
The market sees risks that the Fed will not accommodate a large inflation overshoot, but we think the yield curve may have flattened too far.
Policy credibility remains key macro risk following hawkish Fed meeting
Chair Powell says Fed is considering beginning discussions on tapering.
Chart Room: China has fewer reasons to be hawkish
China's short-end rates remain low despite earlier expectations for monetary tightening.
Fed acknowledges change in reaction function
Fed reiterates guidance and maintains asset purchase programme, despite a significant upgrade to growth and inflation projections.
Chart Room: Staying afloat amid a rising tide of debt
Central banks have been playing a key role in keeping higher debt loads affordable.
Chart Room: The return of the value super-cycle?
In this week’s Chart Room, we look at both sides of the long-standing debate between value and growth investment styles, as seen from both Europe and China.
China bond defaults signal a coming of age as state safety net shrinks
Bond defaults by state-owned enterprises have rattled China’s onshore credit markets. We see this as an important if painful step in curtailing moral hazard.
Near-zero rates expected through 2023 amid Fed concern about the economy
Fed offers forward guidance following shift in inflation targeting framework.
Chinese banks are due for national service
As governments around the world exhaust their policy arsenals to save economies, China is reaching for a secret weapon unrivaled by most countries.
A heavy outlook for the US Dollar
The relentless spread of Covid-19 across the US and improving risk sentiment elsewhere is crimping demand for the safe-haven reserve currency.
Fed in a holding pattern, for now
Trajectory of the recovery remains uncertain despite better employment figures in May.
A shelter from the storm, for now: China’s bond market set to open further
When global fixed income investors scrambled for cover last month, China’s onshore bond market was a rare haven with low volatility and no liquidity crunch.
Chart room: Japanification and the rise of the widow maker trade
Chart room: Japanification and the rise of the widow maker trade
Delayed demand making its return to China’s property market
New home sales are recovering faster than expected in China. This has big implications for domestic demand and the macroeconomic outlook.
Bank of Japan’s coordinated easing signals more proactive asset purchases
Today’s move by the Bank of Japan to boost asset purchases underscores a globally coordinated effort by central banks to contain the coronavirus fallout.
The Fed reaches for the entire arsenal
The Fed reaches for the entire arsenal
Fed dusts off crisis playbook with massive liquidity injection
Ultra-low interest rates and asset purchases will be with us for a long time yet.
ECB: Not another “whatever it takes” moment, but a smart move nonetheless
The ECB unveiled a targeted stimulus package but kept rates unchanged.
UK Treasury and BOE unveil ‘comprehensive’ stimulus package to combat virus effects
BOE and Treasury action on the same day signals the policymakers’ preparedness to respond.
Fed's emergency cut is a strong signal to markets
The US Federal Reserve has issued an emergency 50bps cut to allay coronavirus fears ahead of its monetary policy meeting in March.
China’s financial support targets second-order fallout from coronavirus
China’s healthcare workers have been struggling to contain the spread of coronavirus. Now, policymakers are grappling with the second-order financial effects.
Fed prolongs expansion for those left behind
Fed funds rate remains unchanged amid strong labour market.
ECB’s Strategic Review gives investors plenty to think about
The ECB held interest rates steady, but the focus of the meeting was on the announcement of its new Strategic Review.
Lagarde brings her “own style” to the ECB
Lagarde kept policy unchanged at the ECB
Rates unchanged as Fed engineers soft landing
The Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged as Chairman Jerome Powell says US economy is 'in a good place'
Fed cuts again but stays mute on future path
The US Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, the third cut this year. This week's meeting was hotly anticipated for any clues as to the further path of rates.
Low bond yields are here to stay, even if fiscal stimulus returns
Even if fiscal stimulus makes a return, we think low bond yields will stay because of central bank action and late-cycle effects
Cool Heads: Another cut expected from the Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates for the third consecutive time this year.
European Central Bank: Goodbye Mario, good luck Christine
ECB leaves rates unchanged at Draghi's final meeting.
Hunting for yield in frontier markets: Egypt
When smaller frontier markets mature into benchmark names, early investors can earn attractive returns in these relatively niche, often overlooked places.
Negative interest rates: a bold but dangerous experiment
In an environment of negative interest rates, it could be growth companies not negative yielding bonds, which are the 'safe' investment choice.
China tiptoes down easing street with rate reform
While the Fed and ECB are signaling more rate cuts and quantitative easing to come, China’s central bank has been taking a more cautious approach.
BOE holds steady but case for rate cut is compelling
The Bank of England (BoE) left rates unchanged but the case for an 'insurance cut' is compelling in the face of weak growth and Brexit uncertainty.
Fed’s broken policy dial could benefit Asia investors
Political pressure on the Fed to cut rates is only likely to increase.
US yield curve inverts for first time since 2008, but recession not imminent
While our fixed income team does not expect an imminent recession, the case for further rate cuts in the US is getting stronger and weighing on US yields.
BoE: Holds rates steady amid Brexit uncertainty
We expect the Bank of England to cut rates by 25 bps by year-end
Fed opens the door to a further reduction as it makes 25 bps 'insurance' cut
After hiking nine times in the past four years, the Fed has reversed course
Gold still has space to shine on
We see more upside for gold, thanks to a potent cocktail of falling interest rates, rising long term inflation expectations and heightening recession concerns.
Central banks keep the show on the road, for now
Equity and bond markets don’t agree on what we should expect for the second half of the year. How should investors position in light of these mixed signals?
Draghi’s dovish speech signals further central bank easing
The case for immediate easing by the Fed is however weak.
The Fed remains firmly on hold
The overall message at the US Federal Reserve’s May meeting was clear and simple - it is firmly on hold for now.
EM outlook: For China and the Fed, old habits die hard
China and the US Federal Reserve are falling back on old habits, which should provide some desperately-needed comfort to emerging markets.
The ECB plays ‘wait and see’
The European Central Bank kept policy unchanged at its April meeting, and reverted back to 'wait and see' mode
Why the Fed pivoted and what happens next
The Fed's dovish tone might not last for long.
The Fed's message is solidly dovish; for now
The Fed stuck to its solidly dovish message in March, in line with market expectations. However, it risks leaving itself little room for manoeuvre.
A Goldilocks moment for China’s monetary policy, but watch for more easing and bond index inclusion
Two events are driving the outlook for China fixed income- easing monetary conditions and the expected inclusion of Chinese bonds in benchmark indexes.
ECB startles with dovish move
The central bank kept rates on hold and unveiled new cheap funding measures to boost the faltering Eurozone economy.
Income and yield are not the same thing
Although higher rates imply higher income generation as yields rise, we have not seen income from coupons keep up with the rise in rates.
The next recession: zombie killer
Zombie companies have grown in number since the financial crisis. The next recession should kill them off.
Challenging consensus: market fears of a US recession may be overdone
Markets may be overly pessimistic over an imminent US recession given the recent uptick in real wages.
Fed delivers a hawkish surprise, with dovish elements
Fed delivers a hawkish surprise, with dovish elements
China's easing has not been easy
China’s deleveraging drive has softened, but credit to private companies remains weak. Bigger banks could be pushed to step in.
Midterms could be good for the US economy
Midterms could be good for the US economy
As the BOJ stealthily normalises, the yen will follow
The BOJ appears to be stealthily normalising while keeping rates extremely low. But small steps for Japan’s central bank could be big steps for its currency.
The Fed offers anniversary gift 10 years after global financial crisis
Fed offers anniversary gift 10 years after global financial crisis
Further Fed tightening could prove too much for the rest of the world
The Fed will have to strike a more cautious tone, slowing the pace of tightening next year - but we are not there yet.
Global growth: running out of steam
Global growth, which has been led by the US, is losing momentum, while China is also cooling.
As global liquidity tightens, Argentina’s troubles will continue
Argentina markets will remain vulnerable because of specific challenges, but all emerging markets are suffering from tightening global liquidity.
No exit: Japanese banks continue to feel pain from BOJ’s easy policy
Japan’s banks need to innovate to thrive in the low interest environment rather than wait for the eventual end of the Bank of Japan’s easy monetary policies.
No surprises as the Fed sticks to the plan, for now
There were no surprises as the Fed stuck to the plan, and for good reason: data is strong and inflation on track.
The Bank of Japan fine-tunes monetary policy but sticks to aggressive easing
The Bank of Japan kept its easy monetary policy while tweaking its framework to give itself more flexibility, emphasising that normalisation is nowhere near.
A BoE rate hike is an unnecessary risk
This August, we expect the Bank of England (BoE) to stand and deliver only their second interest rate rise in the past ten years.
The ECB’s monetary policy is needlessly loose
The European Central Bank’s (ECB) unnecessarily loose monetary policy may leave it out of options when the next downturn comes.
Turkey’s interest rate hold is a policy mistake
Turkey’s inaction on the benchmark interest rate is a major policy mistake, undoing much of the good of the rate rises in Q2.
Views from the desk: Diverging monetary policy
Diverging monetary policy
Buckle opinion: Fed raises rates; can't be many in 2018
David Buckle's opinion on the Fed reserve rates decision
Easy days could soon be over: central bank policy normalisation
Easy monetary policy could soon be over, with huge consequences for debt, asset prices, inflation and much else.
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