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Fidelity Analyst Survey: Cost rises are back in play
Fidelity’s latest survey of company analysts shows labour cost pressures still are not easing.
Chart Room: Why China is all aglitter over gold
China’s onshore gold price premium has expanded, spurring cross-border arbitrage and calling for stronger policy measures to shore up confidence.
Quarterly Outlook: Resilience, refinancing, and recession risk
Markets have proven resilient to the prospect of recession. That they will continue to do so is far from certain.
Chart Room: China’s heavy machine makers dig deeper overseas
China’s machinery firms are making new inroads abroad, seeking profitability that’s built to last as demand falls and competition intensifies at home.
Field Notes: Seeing the fabric of life in Bangladesh
We recently travelled to Bangladesh to see what the living and factory working conditions are like for the world’s No. 2 exporter of ready-made garments.
Chart Room: Watching for cracks amid pressure on China’s local government finances
Some of China’s local government financing vehicles are struggling to service their debts, but not all LGFVs are created equal.
Chart Room: Cost deflation, China’s latest export
China’s undershooting post-pandemic recovery has stoked fears of deflation. Our Analyst Survey indicates that businesses are bracing for cost reductions.
Chemicals destocking: cross-asset analysts remain positive on 'unprecedented' cycle
Chemicals destocking: cross-asset analysts remain positive on 'unprecedented' cycle
Fundamentals: Navigating China’s $10 trillion local government debt market
Fundamentals: Navigating China’s $10 trillion local government debt market
Field Notes: How to weigh China’s barbell-shaped consumer recovery
Despite challenges facing China's economy, some of the country's consumer companies are gaining market share, in some cases by exploring new niche categories.
Fundamentals: Low cost carriers win again
Airlines are emerging from three tough years, with even business class bookings recovering, but the advantage is again with Europe’s powerful low-cost carriers
Chart Room: Why ‘work from anywhere’ doesn’t work everywhere
Our ESG Analyst Survey indicates that WFH is viewed favourably by most companies around the world. But there is one very big exception to the WFH trend: China.
The Chinese character of sustainable investing
China hasn't gone as far in implementing sustainability principles as others. For investors, this should be both a call to action and a cause for optimism.
Quarterly Outlook: Between resilience and fragility
Hopes of a soft landing have all but vanished. A recession is coming, but perhaps not for some time. For now, we oscillate between resilience and fragility.
Fundamentals: The AI frenzy comes to China
Fundamentals: The AI frenzy comes to China
Selling like hot chilli crab: a look at Singapore’s local bond boom
While debt issuance has slowed around the world, the Singapore dollar bond market is in a pocket of growth driven by policy tailwinds and an influx of funds.
BOJ: Patience is virtue
At its June meeting, the Bank of Japan has retained its dovish bias, and we believe markets will price in a lower possibility of an imminent exit from YCC.
Fundamentals: Why China’s tentative, two-speed housing market recovery is still on track
China’s residential property market rebound continues at a slow and steady pace, despite diverging performance between new and existing home sales.
Chart Room: Shifting sands in China’s ESG landscape
Fidelity International's survey shows investors and customers are playing an increasingly important role in driving ESG strategies at Chinese companies.
Fundamentals: When boring banking is better
Fundamentals: When boring banking is better
Chart Room: Reopened for business, but now what?
Fidelity International’s latest monthly analyst survey shows a continued decrease in management sentiment, headlined by declines among Chinese companies.
Bioacoustics podcast: Can sound solve biodiversity's data deficit?
Bioacoustics podcast: Can sound solve biodiversity's data deficit?
Wild for sound: how new research is plugging biodiversity’s data deficit
We follow a team of researchers into the jungles of Borneo to learn how sound recordings could help investors and companies better assess biodiversity risks.
China + 1 = ASEAN: A winning formula
A pandemic, a war and geopolitical tensions have caused global firms to rethink their supply chains, and many are eyeing the ASEAN region.
Fundamentals: A new era for weight loss drugs
New weight loss drugs stemming from diabetes treatment may change how the world deals with obesity, but health systems are not yet set up to deliver it widely.
How China aims to unlock more value from state firms
In a new reform push, China’s policymakers are nudging state-owned companies to boost shareholder returns and capital efficiency.
Field Notes: Robots on the rise in China
As China grapples with a daunting demographic challenge, its industries are upping their game in automating production, a recent Fidelity field trip finds.
Proxy plays on China’s consumer rebound are all the rage in Paris
Luxury companies have been among the biggest beneficiaries of China’s bounce and are delivering investors exposure without putting money in Chinese companies.
Field Notes: China’s healthcare innovation marches on
Despite policy concerns and geopolitical tensions, China’s healthcare sector has stayed its course on innovation and keeps climbing the value chain.
Fundamentals: Grain pains and the road to higher prices
Food producers and other consumer staples companies have performed surprisingly well despite the huge challenges posed by the rise in raw material costs.
Chart Room: Utilities less useful as bond proxies
Rising interest rates in the US are testing the notion of utility stocks as bond proxies, as ties between their P/E ratios and corporate bond yields weaken.
Japan’s stock market reform gathers steam
The Tokyo Stock Exchange is taking steps in the right direction on some long overdue reforms, but more still needs to be done.
Chart Room: Will the renminbi’s stable attraction woo Asian partners?
While the market traditionally focuses on the renminbi’s performance against the US dollar, we think its relationship with Asian peers deserves more attention.
Asia Quarterly Outlook: Can the East wind prevail?
In Fidelity International's latest quarterly outlook for Asia, we believe the economic outlook in Asia is brightened by China’s reopening.
Fundamentals: What’s next for China’s fully charged electric vehicle battery makers?
China's EV battery makers are facing overcapacity at home and increased competition abroad. But that could be a good thing - for green growth and consumers.
Quarterly Outlook: Navigating the polycrisis - Part II
In Fidelity's latest quarterly outlook, we believe that recession over the next 12 months looks increasingly likely across developed markets.
Suisse roll-up
An historic last-minute takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS offers an imperfect solution as regulators seek to contain broader systemic risk.
Fundamentals: American cardboard is too heavy
European packaging companies have made progress in reducing plastic use and making cardboard packaging cheaper, lighter, and greener. But US peers are lagging.
Rich Pickings podcast: Looking for cracks in the system after SVB
After the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Richard Edgar is joined by some of Fidelity's experts to discuss the fallout.
Inflation’s bite won’t spoil China’s recovery
Spiralling prices were a headache for much of the world in 2022, and some are asking if it’s China’s turn.
Chart Room: Why fixed-asset investment is on the move in China
Investment remains a major driver of China’s economy, but priorities are shifting from property to manufacturing.
China’s property market sparks to life with signs of recovery
Homebuyers are finally back in action in China. We see a rebound in sales activity in mega cities, although consumer confidence remains fickle.
Fundamentals: Looking for winners in the AI arms race
ChatGPT is a watershed moment for the popular use of AI technology, but it will be as hard as ever piecing together the likely paths of development from here.
Fundamentals: This is not an iPhone
A US liberalisation of access to hearing aids brings one of the health world’s big equipment markets closer to the retail mainstream.
Chart Room: Sentiment turns positive, but can it hold?
Chart Room: Sentiment turns positive, but can it hold?
How far can ‘revenge spending’ consumers carry China’s economic rebound?
Chinese consumers’ holiday shopping provided evidence of pent-up demand. With more policy support, consumers will set their sights on bigger ticket items.
Rich Pickings podcast: Analyst Survey 2023 - Light at the end of the tunnel
Fidelity's experts join Richard Edgar to dig through the findings of the 2023 Analyst Survey.
Chart Room: A hiring spree on the horizon in China
While much of the global economy appears at risk of recession, China is revving up a rebound that’s set to jumpstart the job market.
Trade Offs | Baker Hughes: Telling home truths about natural gas
From deep sea divers to Texas roughnecks, Baker Hughes is one of the oil and gas industry’s big three global services players.
Analyst Survey 2023: China poised to lead expansion in Asia
China is entering the Year of the Rabbit poised to bound free from Covid lockdowns, and most Fidelity analysts expect it will be in expansion by end of 2023.
Analyst Survey 2023: Light at the end of the tunnel
Boards are in damage-control mode, yet Fidelity’s 2023 Analyst Survey shows more than half of analysts expect the business cycle to turn within the year.
Analyst Survey 2023: Companies prepare for a world after cheap financing
Companies prepare for a world after cheap financing
Fundamentals: China’s reopening and supply chains
China’s reopening and supply chains
Chart Room: Employee welfare is still a priority
Companies’ recent push to focus on employee wellbeing is unlikely to fade, even as an economic downturn puts pressure on business
Cementing a greener future in China
We see huge environmental value in helping to set a top Chinese cement producer on a greener path.
Chart Room: And the key disruptive tech of 2023 will be…
Automation and AI are expected to be the biggest disruptive forces boosting corporate profitability in 2023, according to Fidelity International analysts.
Analyst Survey 2023: Inflation relief in sight
Fidelity International's annual Analyst Survey suggests cost pressures for companies will peak by the end of the first quarter of 2023.
A new golden age for China’s investment sector
China’s investment and wealth management industry is embracing a golden age. The onshore markets will remain an attractive long-term investment destination.
Chart Room: Looking back on an inflationary Catch-2022
Eight charts that capture the inflationary torment of 2022 and shine a light on what’s ahead.
Fundamentals: After a volatile year, how low can commodities go?
Fundamentals: After a volatile year, how low can commodities go?
Chart Room: EVs plug into the mainstream in China
Chart Room: EVs plug into the mainstream in China
Outlook 2023: Download the assets
Find Fidelity International's full 2023 Investment Outlook here
ESG ratings: Seeing the value in divergent views
ESG ratings: Seeing the value in divergent views
Q4 Investment Outlook: Into the unknown
Fidelity International's Q4 Investment Outlook looks at the increasing likelihood of a hard landing.
Analyst Survey: Cost pressures hit a plateau
Input cost inflation is starting to stabilise, according to the latest Fidelity International Analyst Survey, amid signs of demand destruction.
Why smart grid tech can help meet China’s green growth challenges
Amid slowing economic growth and shifting power consumption patterns, China’s expanding smart grid system could help light the path to net zero.
Chart Room: China takes own path in a tightening world
China is bucking the trend towards higher interest rates, and the resulting yield divergence has huge implications for bond investors and currency markets.
Waiting for the sequel: Japan’s stock exchange reforms
A highly anticipated round of reform at the Tokyo exchange has left many questions unanswered, but rising ESG awareness shines a light on the way forward.
Chart Room: Global sentiment sinking fast
Fidelity International analysts detect growing signs of recession by year’s end.
China’s property downturn may have found a floor
The government’s will to reform a wayward real estate industry is balanced against the more urgent task of reviving a slowing economy.
The ingredients are there for a wage-price spiral
After the surge in inflation, will wages follow? Our analysts think they will.
Q3 Investment Outlook: The Great Reset
Central banks have tried to strike a balance between reducing inflation by tightening financial conditions and mitigating the impact on economic growth.
Chart Room: Supercharged commodities spell a regime change for investing
Demand for real assets neglected in the pandemic could be set to surge as the world shifts to a new, sustainable paradigm, but there will also be more pain
Chart Room: Expectations around rising input costs are starting to moderate
Chart Room: Expectations around rising input costs are starting to moderate
How blockchain will revolutionise the financial system
Another year, another burst of extreme crypto volatility. But the blockchain technology behind bitcoin and other digital assets continues to grow in importance
Now and zen: Japan’s quiet rise
Inflation may be a scourge elsewhere, but Japan is unruffled. Instead, the world’s third-largest economy is showcasing its appeal to investors.
Chart Room: As others hike rates, can China’s easing policy remain a cut above?
Cuts to the reserve requirement ratio remain China’s monetary policy weapon of choice. How they are wielded highlights the tightrope policymakers must walk.
Corporates weigh the cost of long-term Russia exits
Our latest Fidelity International Analyst Survey suggests that for many companies Russia may be un-investable for years to come
Re-globalisation in the age of Asia's supply chain crunch
Even the best-laid plans across the global manufacturing industry haven’t kept pace with a swiftly evolving siege of pressures on supply chains.
What delisting Chinese ADRs from US exchanges does and doesn’t mean for investors
What delisting Chinese ADRs from US exchanges does and doesn’t mean for investors
Q2 Investment Outlook: The “Grand Chessboard” reconfigured; stagflation risks intensify
The global order is reconfigured and stagflation risks intensify.
Chart Room: Pole position for China’s electric autos
Despite rising materials costs, supply bottlenecks, and cloudy global macro conditions, China’s electric vehicle sector still looks charged for growth.
China as a new safe haven?
Looming stagflation and war effects have global investors searching for havens. China represents a less conventional option with diversification benefits.
Rich Pickings podcast: Tectonic shifts - mapping the disruption to economies and supply chains
Rich Pickings podcast: Tectonic shifts - mapping the disruption to economies and supply chains
Chart Room: Ukraine war adds to inflation and brings further supply chain woes
As the appalling human cost of the war in Ukraine continues to grow, the knock-on effects for the global economy are also becoming clearer.
A time for cool heads as the world order shifts
Russia’s war in Ukraine has raised fears of profound fissures in the global economic and geopolitical balance, while casting scrutiny on China’s stance.
The smaller half of China's sky: Fidelity International China Gender Diversity Report
In Fidelity's first report on gender diversity in corporate China, we examine the status quo and offer suggestions on how firms and investors can do better.
Analyst Survey results and investment implications
Our experts discuss the results of this year's Analyst Survey and explore the implications for investors.
Analysts on the headline findings
Fidelity analysts from around the world put some of the survey's key findings in context
Analyst Survey 2022: Region by region
Analyst Survey 2022: Region by region breakdown
Analyst Survey 2022: Sector by sector
Confidence rises, but analysts expect significant differences across sectors.
Analyst Survey 2022: Mind the roadblocks
Fidelity International Analyst Survey 2022: Mind the roadblocks
Chart Room: Rising rates aren’t always bad for ‘low vol’ strategies
Rising bond yields don’t automatically mean bad news for low volatility strategies; understanding why requires a closer look at each cycle of rate increases.
China walks a familiar tightrope as it targets recovery
While most other major economies are moving to tighten, the construction-fueled stimulus that Beijing has sought to avoid is suddenly back on the cards.
Chart Room: Electric carmakers to outstrip ICEs by mid 2020s
The number of electric vehicle manufacturers is expected to overtake the number of companies making cars of the gas-guzzling variety by the mid 2020s.
ESGenius: Boosting board independence in Japan
Regulatory reforms have created new opportunities for active shareholders to engage with Japanese companies on key governance issues like board independence.
ESGenius: Greening ‘Made in China’
While domestic consumption of sustainable products remains nascent, China’s exporters are tapping into demand for ‘green’ goods around the world.
Chart Room: Fidelity quant indicator points to risk off
Fidelity’s Risk Aversion Indicator has quickly moved higher over the past few weeks and now recommends taking risk off the table.
Chart Room: When it pays to consider low volatility strategies
In the face of a riskier macro environment, strategies designed to minimise volatility may find their time to shine.
The Investor's Guide to China podcast: Demographics
China’s labour pool is shrinking as the population ages. How people save and invest signals challenges and opportunities for China’s pension system.
Chart Room: What policies will push companies towards net zero?
The carrot is more effective than the stick, according to a survey of Fidelity International analysts.
Chart Room: Net zero needs decarbonisation solutions
A chasm remains between government plans to cut emissions and the shared goal of net zero by 2050. Nascent decarbonisation solutions may help bridge the gap.
China Green bonds: sprouting issuance, absent greenium
A key advantage of China’s onshore green bonds that sets them apart from other markets is the lack of price premium over comparable non-green issues.
Carbon pricing is coming but watch out for greenflation
Carbon pricing is an inescapable tool in the race to net zero, according to Fidelity International’s latest Analyst Survey.
Chart Room: Digging into China’s GDP growth
A sharp decline in excavator utilisation reflects China’s property-and-infrastructure-induced slowdown, but it also boosts the case for strong policy response.
The Investor's Guide to China podcast: Regulation
How should investors look at a pick-up in regulatory activity that has affected some of China’s biggest and most dynamic companies?
Chart Room: The kitchen gets hotter for China’s gadget makers
Demographics are weighing on China’s kitchen appliance segment, but competition is heating up at the higher end of the market.
Time to look beyond Evergrande and China’s ‘too big to fail’ era
Property giant China Evergrande’s woes are better understood as a controlled explosion, rather than an unexpected disaster.
Fidelity Live: The Analysts - How we get to net zero
Fidelity's research and investment teams on what net zero means for investors and how the utilities sector is managing the transition.
Chart Room: An inflection point for Chinese equities?
There may be pressure on valuations as international investors adopt a wait-and-see approach, but the long-term outlook continues to be positive.
Asia eyes a tantrum-free taper this time
A faster-than-expected tapering by the Federal Reserve remains a risk for Asian bond markets, but investors have been reassured by the latest policy signals.
Chart Room: US restaurants devour record receipts amid rebound
A resurgent desire to eat out has propelled monthly US restaurant sales above pre-pandemic levels. Despite challenges, we see a long runway of recovery ahead.
A podium moment for Japan’s markets, too?
Japan stocks have long been consigned to tactical trading by global investors, but positive catalysts are emerging in a post-Covid inflationary world.
Chart Room: Bond markets tempt FAIT amid prospects for a steeper US yield curve
The market sees risks that the Fed will not accommodate a large inflation overshoot, but we think the yield curve may have flattened too far.
Rich Pickings podcast: Ready, steady, pitch! Analysts on their most exciting investment trends
"What is fascinating is the speed of innovation," says Portfolio Manager Aditya Khowala in this month's Rich Pickings.
After the selloff, what next for China equities?
A spate of regulatory actions across several sectors in China rattled markets and sent shares tumbling, but some of this selling appears overdone.
Chart Room: Gimme shelter (from inflation)
Shelter inflation continues to hold the key for forecasting inflation pressure in the US.
Chart Room: Why stock-bond correlations are turning positive
In the wake of Covid-19, US tech and consumer discretionary firms are leading a departure from the negative correlation between equities and bonds.
Macau rebound a test case for China’s outbound travel
The ‘Las Vegas of the East’ is betting its long-standing travel bubble with mainland China can endure.
Chart Room: What Japan’s digital transformation means for markets
After years as relative laggards, Japanese companies are diving headfirst into DX, or digital transformation, and investors should take notice.
Chart Room: The crisis and opportunity in recycling single-use plastics
Production of single-use plastics is forecast to continue rising for the next decade-plus, and investment opportunities will depend greatly on recycling.
Key findings of Fidelity's ESG Analyst Survey explained
An audio digest with context and analysis of the results.
Analysts tell the stories behind the ESG Survey data
Three of Fidelity's analysts show how the numbers reveal the headlines of the ESG survey.
Chart Room: Stronger for longer for China’s renminbi?
Expectations for further renminbi appreciation have risen, but we think short-term gains could be capped from here.
Credit risk at China’s SOEs in focus amid Huarong saga
China’s bond and equity markets have been rattled by concerns that state-owned enterprises could face greater default risk.
Chart Room: China’s EV industry is charged for growth
The combination of falling battery costs and rising adoption rates means China's EV industry is charged for growth.
Chart Room: An uneven supercycle for commodities?
Most commodity prices have been strong this year, spurring talk of a potential supercycle. But the returns could be more dispersed from here.
Chart Room: The rapid rise of digital payments in India
The technological transformation of India’s economy has accelerated in recent years, as can clearly be seen in the accelerating shift to digital transactions.
Chart Room: Why dividends make sense in an inflationary environment
History shows how dividend-focused investment strategies can provide sustainable income in a reflationary environment.
Chart Room: China has fewer reasons to be hawkish
China's short-end rates remain low despite earlier expectations for monetary tightening.
Why India’s ‘fallen angel’ risk is rising
India’s ballooning debt levels amid a structural growth slowdown have raised the risks of an imminent downgrade by credit ratings agencies.
Chart Room: Equity volatility eases as Treasury yields rise
The VIX has fallen below a key technical level, suggesting a new wave of investor optimism.
Chart Room: EM outperformance could be sustained, if commodities are a guide
This week’s Chart Room shows the historical correlation of EM equities with commodities, which suggests that the breakout could be sustained.
Chart Room: Energy and industrials sectors to bounce back in 2021
Revenue growth this year could be strongest in the sectors worst affected by Covid-19, according to Fidelity International’s latest monthly analyst survey.
Chart Room: Retail investors pile into the fastest growing stocks
Retail investors' market participation is extreme not only in volume, but also concentration.
Chart Room: A Goldilocks spot for inflation-linked bonds
We see a sweet spot in inflation-linked bonds with maturities ranging from 1 year to 10 years.
Flows vs friction
Growth opportunities in post-pandemic Asia are set to propel a long-term boom in equity capital markets, as the region draws in ever greater inflows.
Chart Room: Corporate ESG focus reverts to pre-Covid priorities
An economic rebound could bring with it a reversion to pre-pandemic priorities in environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors.
Reflation revives outlook for UK equities
Signs of reflation are sparking hopes that UK equities will benefit from a vaccine-led reopening of the economy.
Sustainability is key for value creation
How should we quantify the valuation impact of sustainable investing?
Analyst Survey 2021: Region by region
Here we look at what Fidelity International's analysts say will be the prevailing regional trends over the next 12 months.
Analyst Survey 2021: Sector by sector
Fidelity International's analysts expect significant differences in the pace of individual sector recoveries.
Analyst Survey 2021: Analyst Q&A
Our analysts talk about the key trends in their respective sectors in the wake of Covid-19.
Analyst Survey 2021: Counting down the days
Confidence is high despite the threat of new variants; ESG emphasis rises again.
Chart Room: Staying afloat amid a rising tide of debt
Central banks have been playing a key role in keeping higher debt loads affordable.
Chart Room: Keep an eye on housing rents when tracking inflation
Some key considerations make us more constructive on US rents for the year ahead, particularly soaring home purchase prices.
Chart Room: Risk-on and on, with caveats
Caution and careful positioning are important from here, based on the latest readings from Fidelity’s risk aversion indicator.
What’s ahead for China’s markets in the Year of the Ox
Investors keen to see whether China’s bull market can keep charging ahead in the lunar Year of the Ox will be focused on recovery and monetary policy.
Chart Room: Emerging markets and the reopening trade
Emerging EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) and Latin American stocks are particularly well positioned to reap the benefits of reopening.
Chart Room: The return of the value super-cycle?
In this week’s Chart Room, we look at both sides of the long-standing debate between value and growth investment styles, as seen from both Europe and China.
China, the West and the rest: how vaccine rollouts are progressing
With little fanfare, China is firing on all cylinders to vaccinate tens of millions of people, even as domestic spread of the virus appears mild.
Chart Room: After the Gold Rush
Is it time to take profits in gold?
January FLI update: Fiscal good news offsets near-term softening
The FLI Cycle Tracker remains in the ‘top-right’ quadrant with growth above trend and improving, albeit momentum has softened for a second month.
Chart Room: A liquidity tide for the record books
2020 brought us new high-water marks in the US for both money supply growth and the personal savings rate.
Chart Room: Chinese stocks, playing catchup, finally retrace 2015 highs
But the rally in China’s main onshore index still lags its US and global counterparts.
New survey finds silver linings to China’s pension challenges
As China faces the formidable task of building a private pension industry from scratch, it can count on the blessing of residents’ financial wellness.
Chart Room: Weakening dollar gives emerging markets a shot in the arm
Emerging markets may be helped further along by the weaker outlook for the US dollar.
Unlocking India’s structural opportunities: 10 charts
Reforms and new infrastructure paving the way for manufacturing investment and employment will be key to unlocking India’s next stage of development.
Fidelity Analyst Survey: Company debt may have peaked already
While most analysts expect debt levels at their companies to stay the same or fall next year, it is becoming a greater factor in management decision making.
China bond defaults signal a coming of age as state safety net shrinks
Bond defaults by state-owned enterprises have rattled China’s onshore credit markets. We see this as an important if painful step in curtailing moral hazard.
Chart Room: The clear link between ESG and returns
How have stocks that scored high for Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors held up amid the Covid-19 fallout?
China takes aim at trash
A massive nationwide effort is underway to improve China's waste management systems.
Fidelity Leading Indicator extends strong momentum of recovery
FLI-implied activity appears to be heading to levels only slightly below the pre-COVID peak, despite pockets of impact from renewed mobility restrictions.
Chart Room: Some sectors may be set for a margin squeeze
The latest reading from our monthly analyst survey shows which companies are struggling with inflationary pressure but also weaker pricing power.
Growth targets take a backseat in China’s new economic plan
Domestic consumption and technology growth will be prioritised as the government reveals overarching guidelines for the country’s 14th five-year plan.
Chart Room: Correlations boil and bubble 🎃 and may spell toil and trouble 🦇
In this follow-up special Halloween edition of Chart Room, we look at how correlations are casting a spell over markets.
The hidden dragon of 2020
As global investors scramble to digest paradigm shifts, another change of seismic scale has gone under-noticed in a year full of twists and turns.
Fidelity Analyst Survey: Sentiment improves again but could be nearing plateau
October’s survey of Fidelity International’s analysts reveals that sentiment and leading indicators are once again incrementally better than last month.
Chart Room: Government debt climbs to spooky heights
In this special Halloween edition Chart Room (part 1 of 2), we look at the frightening levels of government debt around the world.
ESGenius: Insurance companies neglect sustainability at their peril
Fidelity research shows disparity in how sustainability is viewed across insurance sector.
Chart Room: Why growth still has room to grow in China equities
The valuation premium for China growth stocks versus value stocks hit a new all-time high, lifted by the consumer, tech and healthcare sectors.
Fidelity Leading Indicator shows record short-term growth momentum
All sectors are exhibiting significant strength, as policymakers seek to bridge economies to the hoped-for 2021 vaccine rollout.
Chart room: European cyclicals vulnerable if manufacturing data moderates
Any moderation in the growth of new manufacturing orders could make cyclicals vulnerable to a de-rating.
Chart Room: Is disinflation lurking around the corner?
In a bullish signal, the bond market’s short-term expectations for US inflation are back near pre-crisis levels. But are investors being overly optimistic?
Analyst Survey podcast: The world catches up with China
Listen to the latest Analyst Survey podcast to hear what Fidelity's almost 150 analysts saying about the state of the corporate world.
Chart Room: Why some tech valuations may be lower than you think
A closer look at longer-term valuations reveals some surprising trends in tech.
Analyst Pulse Survey: Companies are restructuring, but are they resilient?
Certain sectors will need to do more to be resilient in the face of diminishing government support and possible infection rate rises.
Boosting sea legs
The Covid-19 pandemic has left numerous seafarers stranded. Fidelity is acting fast to sound the alarm on an issue of global humanitarian concern.
Chart Room: Emerging market currencies lag on inflation risks
EM countries are using some of the same monetary and fiscal measures as developed markets. But this could add to rising inflation and currency weakness.
Fidelity Leading Indicator signals broad-based recovery
Four out of five FLI sectors are experiencing both growth and acceleration, with only Consumer and Labour lagging.
Chart Room: China’s Covid rebound puts the ‘V’ in investment
Fixed asset investment (FAI) in China has recovered to its pre-Covid levels of growth, with infrastructure and property driving the nation’s broader economy.
Why India could be the next breeding ground for tech unicorns
The Silicon Valley giants are shifting their attention to India as the next big growth market.
China property: Built for the long run
Facing challenges in their core business of building and selling new homes, Chinese real estate developers have found an alternative source of revenue.
GEARs: Bursting through the ceiling?
Fidelity International’s GEAR (Gauges of Economic Activity in Real Time) activity indicators continue to rebound strongly.
Overweight autos: The road less travelled
Despite the risks, we believe that the auto sector now presents an investment opportunity.
Fidelity Leading Indicator points to weak recovery
Business sentiment and trade are improving, among signals of a fragile recovery, but consumer confidence and industrial orders lag.
Chinese banks are due for national service
As governments around the world exhaust their policy arsenals to save economies, China is reaching for a secret weapon unrivaled by most countries.
A heavy outlook for the US Dollar
The relentless spread of Covid-19 across the US and improving risk sentiment elsewhere is crimping demand for the safe-haven reserve currency.
With nowhere to go, Chinese tourists spend closer to home
Most travel destinations remain off-limits, and as Chinese people’s savings have increased, so has their pent-up demand and desire to treat themselves.
Fidelity live: Analysts webcast replay
Hear from our Head of Research and two of our analysts on the ground as they share the thoughts from over 160 of their analyst peers around the world.
July’s Fidelity International Pulse Survey: Falling costs find some support
July’s Fidelity International Pulse Survey: Falling costs find some support
Covid health code reveals China’s big data edge
A key to China’s success in containing the coronavirus, the health code’s propagation evinces a major advantage in big data development.
Chart Room: Why China government bonds have underperformed other markets
China government bond yields are diverging from other major government bond markets.
ESGenius: Due diligence on Wirecard revealed that the sums didn’t add up
For investors focused on sustainability and governance, the warning signs of financial misreporting were there for some time.
Chart Room: Chinese consumers’ growing preference for local brands
The Covid-19 experience is spurring changes in behavior among Chinese consumers. Among these is a growing preference for domestic brands over foreign ones.
The future of energy podcast: the 1.5 trillion dollar question
"I do think that [the pandemic], for the power industry, is going to make it have a more green generation mix," says analyst Christine Miyagishima.
Chart Room: Asian equities diverge, creating opportunities
The difference in performance between equity markets in East Asia and South Asia (India, ASEAN nations) is the largest in nearly 15 years.
GEARs: China roars while the global economy snores
Our Gauges of Economic Activity in Real time (GEARs), a proxy for three-month annualised growth, improved this month but remain in extreme hibernation.
Chart room: Despite a recent rally, high yield bonds still look cheap
For US high yield, valuations look historically cheap on a relative basis - especially when compared to equities.
Fidelity International Pulse Survey: 10 months of disruption remain
Fidelity International’s June survey of 149 analysts finds that activity in most sectors and regions is expected to return to a stable level in under a year.
Podcast: The future of... connectivity
"After this, I don't think any law-maker will disagree that telecom connectivity is as important as any other utility," says portfolio manager Sumant Wahi.
Chart room: Another false dawn for value stocks?
Over the past decade, previous periods of value outperformance have been short-lived. Will this time be different?
Japanification in 12 charts
Many western economies are mirroring Japan’s experience over the past 30 years.These 12 charts show how some of the key trends are playing out.
Chart Room: QE expectations vs. reality, market moves
Market expectations of future asset purchases by the Fed have an even greater influence than the purchases themselves.
Central banks in emerging markets hop on the bond-buying bandwagon
EM central bankers are taking a page from the developed-market playbook and purchasing local bonds as a way to cushion the blow
Chart Room: Mobility data shows most economies are rebounding slowly
Economic activity is being determined by virus response rather than slower-moving traditional industrial cycles. We need to adjust our toolkits accordingly.
The end of the journey to the West: Chinese tech firms come home
The tides of global capital markets have turned for Chinese tech firms. Instead of US listings, they are starting to find greater China more compelling.
China again primes growth with infrastructure investment
With exports expected to slump and consumption still struggling to fully recover, China is turning to a familiar playbook - infrastructure spending.
Chart Room: Beware the narrowing market
Equity market performance is now at its narrowest since the 2008 Financial Crisis, with the rally riding on a dwindling number of large-cap growth stocks.
Podcast: The future of... retail and real estate: liquidity, liquidity, liquidity
As the pandemic changes consumer behaviour - perhaps permanently - we look at what the future of retail and its associated real estate could look like.
Chart Room: Mind the valuations
After recent rebounds in stocks and bonds, we take a quick look at valuations and how they stack up against history.
Fidelity Leading Indicator shows broad weakness as the focus turns to recovery
The three-month Fidelity Leading Indicator growth rate is already halfway to the Global Financial Crisis trough.
How India’s economy is navigating Covid-19
As the world begins to come out of lockdowns and economies normalise, India can offer bright spots for emerging market investors.
China’s tourists step out again
Over 100 million travellers in China hit the road over the five-day May Day holiday, the first big test for tourism since lockdowns started being lifted.
Chart Room: What in the world is going on with gold?
The correlation between gold and equities has increased to an 18-month high, calling into question the metal’s usual benefit as a porfolio diversifier.
The New Economic Order
We believe the Covid-19 crisis will trigger a step-change in policy, accelerate existing trends and transform investment frameworks.
Oil tankers gush profits as global storage space overflows
Oil tankers are earning windfall profits - but how long can this situation last?
Chart Room: More policy easing supports China bonds
This week’s Chart Room shows how ample liquidity is helping China’s onshore bond markets navigate around global volatility.
A shelter from the storm, for now: China’s bond market set to open further
When global fixed income investors scrambled for cover last month, China’s onshore bond market was a rare haven with low volatility and no liquidity crunch.
Chart room: Beauty of big tech stocks is in the eye of the beholder
Our latest Chart Room takes a comparative look at the long run up in the Nasdaq 100 index.
Oil below zero: bad, but not that bad
Oil fundamentals are weak - but Monday’s price move should be seen as an outlier.
Chart Room: Fidelity analysts expect longer disruptions from Covid-19
Chart Room: Fidelity analysts expect longer disruptions from Covid-19
Fidelity Pulse Survey: The coming solvency squeeze
The global shutdown will put a significant dent in corporate earnings this year, according to 150 Fidelity analysts surveyed this month.
Downgrade risks when zombies become fallen angels
The high yield bond market prepares for an influx of downgraded investment grade debt.
Delayed demand making its return to China’s property market
New home sales are recovering faster than expected in China. This has big implications for domestic demand and the macroeconomic outlook.
FLI: Consumer pain leads the way
The three-month Fidelity Leading Indicator growth rate is already halfway to the Global Financial Crisis trough.
Strong underpinnings to Asia’s investment grade bond market
Asia’s investment grade bond market looks attractive as we continue working through the Covid-19 outbreak, and global coordinated stimulus take effect.
Inflation expectations close to nadir
Low Inflation expectations mean breakevens nolw look attractively priced
A cautious consumer rebound takes hold in China
Chinese consumers are offering a ray of hope in the economic wreckage from the Covid-19 coronavirus
China and its neighbours reboot supply chains
As China’s economy emerges from lockdown, activity across Asia’s sprawling network of factories, ports and logistics hubs is picking up.
Recession is here - how bad will it be?
Recession is here - how bad will it be?
Bank of Japan’s coordinated easing signals more proactive asset purchases
Today’s move by the Bank of Japan to boost asset purchases underscores a globally coordinated effort by central banks to contain the coronavirus fallout.
Fidelity analysts say China will lead recovery from virus
Fidelity analysts say China will lead recovery from virus
Limited correction likely in European real estate
Limited correction likely in European real estate
China gets back to business
How fast and how fully activity recovers in China will have huge implications for one of the world’s key economic growth engines.
As gold’s surge draws wider interest, miners shine too
Gold's lustre is also rubbing off on the companies that dig it up from the ground.
Oil price war set to escalate
The oil price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia is still in escalation mode - and things could get worse before they get better.
Ask the Analysts: How are your companies dealing with Coronavirus?
As the business impact of Coronavirus grows, Fidelity analysts describe the level of preparedness that they are observing amongst their companies.
A supply and demand shock for oil markets
Expectations of a demand shock due to the Covid-19 coronavirus collided with an anticipated supply surge after OPEC+ had a major fallout over production cuts.
Fundamentals podcast: Tesla, VW, and the big electric bet
As Tesla and Volkswagen make big pushes to bring electric vehicles to the mass market we ask whether 2020 is the year EVs finally put their foot to the floor.
Outbreak deepens China’s e-commerce push
While the coronavirus threatens to put a dent in China’s overall growth, pockets of the online economy are booming.
White paper: Active share and index concentration
We examine active share, and assess how its value as a tool for evaluating portfolios and investment managers can vary with the underlying benchmark index.
The Investor's Guide to China podcast: Environment
Fidelity's China and sustainability experts put the country's environmental record and ambitions under the investment lens.
Analyst Survey 2020 podcast: The findings discussed
Hear our experts dissect the findings of Fidelity's annual Analyst Survey and the forecasts of more than 150 analysts across the world.
Analyst Survey 2020: Sector by sector
Key findings from the 10 different sectors covered by the survey.
Analyst Survey 2020: Region by region
The key findings from the 10 different regions covered by the survey.
Analyst Survey 2020: A watershed year for ESG
ESG shoots up the corporate agenda in China and the US.
Analyst Survey 2020: Cycle, what cycle?
Economic cycles typically last several years, not entire decades. But this one is different.
Fidelity Leading Indicator signals slowing global growth as coronavirus impact looms
The economic impact of the novel coronavirus outbreak is only just beginning to be captured by the latest FLI reading.
China’s financial support targets second-order fallout from coronavirus
China’s healthcare workers have been struggling to contain the spread of coronavirus. Now, policymakers are grappling with the second-order financial effects.
US China Phase 1: Apocalypse Postponed
'Phase 1’ of the US- China trade pact reveals no credible path forward, so instead the two sides have chosen to stand still
Investment Outlook Q1 2020: Slowing but going
Overall, 2020 looks to be a story of growth stabilisation rather than big acceleration and it displays the signs of the final stages of a bull market.
Fidelity Leading Indicator: Still strong but approaching the limit
The Fidelity Leading Indicator's acceleration is circling back towards zero after a period of strong improvement.
The fourth automation wave will be ‘Made in China’
China is set to lead the world in automation developments, because it has lots of data and the means to leverage it.
Global GEAR suggests economy remains on weak footing
Our proprietary Gauges of Economic Activity in Real-Time (GEAR) is flat but there is plenty of divergence at the individual country level.
Hunting for yield in frontier markets: Egypt
When smaller frontier markets mature into benchmark names, early investors can earn attractive returns in these relatively niche, often overlooked places.
Investment Outlook Q4 2019: Bending, not breaking
The Investment Outlook is our flagship quarterly outlook publication that outlines our views on all the major asset classes and details the 'house view'.
Volatility is a double-edged sword that investors can’t live without
A better understanding of volatility and its role in portfolios can help investors to position themselves for any turbulence ahead.
China tiptoes down easing street with rate reform
While the Fed and ECB are signaling more rate cuts and quantitative easing to come, China’s central bank has been taking a more cautious approach.
ESGenius: Will flight shame take off?
If flight shame spreads from Sweden to the rest of Europe, it could be a big ESG problem for arlines
Grocery retail is the next frontier for e-commerce in China
Chinese internet companies like Tencent, Alibaba and JD.com have been acquiring and teaming up with bricks-and-mortar stores.
From Made in China to Designed in China: The luxury brands moving up the value chain
If you haven't heard of these luxury Chinese brands, you will soon. Portfolio Manager Hyomi Jie investigates the premiumisation of fashion labels like JNBY.
Dividend investing in China is growing up
Chinese companies are realising the benefits of paying dividends to attract a more stable investor base and in response to regulation.
The Investor's Guide to China: Stock picking
China's businesses operate in a unique environment and understanding that matrix is imperative to those hoping to identify the best companies for investment.
Despite macro challenges, pockets of resilience in Chinese corporate earnings
Some bright spots in recent earnings reports suggest interesting opportunities
Is seven an unlucky number for China’s currency?
China’s renminbi weakened past the seven per US dollar mark for the first time in more than ten years.
Investment Outlook Q3 2019: A delicate balance
The Investment Outlook is our flagship quarterly outlook publication that outlines our views on all the major asset classes and details the 'house view'.
Fundamentals podcast: Consumer staples and the risky business of defensive stocks
Fidelity's investment research podcast questions the defensiveness of the consumer staples sector after a decade of cheap debt has transformed balance sheets.
Seeing red: How long can the iron ore rally last?
Seeing red: How long can the iron ore rally last?
Gold still has space to shine on
We see more upside for gold, thanks to a potent cocktail of falling interest rates, rising long term inflation expectations and heightening recession concerns.
Should investors hedge against big market moves now?
With all the uncertainty about the global economic outlook, investors ask whether it's time to add protection against volatility to their portfolios.
Central banks keep the show on the road, for now
Equity and bond markets don’t agree on what we should expect for the second half of the year. How should investors position in light of these mixed signals?
US-China trade wars: What to expect from the G20
US President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping are expected to hold an informal meeting at the G20 Summit in Osaka, Japan on June 28-29.
China property: Houses are for living in, not for speculation
A cross-asset analysis shows China’s property sector faces demographic headwinds, but opportunities exist thanks to improved liquidity and diverging policy.
The future of real estate: What will the industry look like in 2039?
How will the innovations of the next 20 years change the world of real estate.
China’s stimulus is working, but credit markets hold longer-term risks
The credit stimulus measures that China began last summer are starting to reach a critical mass, but transmission to the real economy remains patchy.
Podcast: Palm oil, Chinese steel and when the environment triumphs
Environmental pressures are beginning to move the tectonic plates of industry. Fidelity's analysts discuss what it can mean for those sectors at the epicentre
A Goldilocks moment for China’s monetary policy, but watch for more easing and bond index inclusion
Two events are driving the outlook for China fixed income- easing monetary conditions and the expected inclusion of Chinese bonds in benchmark indexes.
Barriers to women investing: An Australian perspective
A state-of-the-nation report commissioned by Fidelity International (Australia) which reveals the barriers women face when it comes to investing.
Macro slowdown clashes with market optimism
The disconnect between economic fundamentals and markets is unlikely to be sustainable in the short term.
GEAR update: US and Japan join the slowdown
GEAR update: US and Japan join the slowdown
Region by region: Analyst Survey 2019
Looking at the Analyst Survey by region shows some striking common themes emerge, particularly around declining confidence and ebbing bullishness.
Podcast: Fidelity Analyst Survey 2019
Fidelity's heads of research go in-depth on the findings from this year's Fidelity Analyst Survey.
The Analyst Survey: 16,000 company meetings into one big picture
Why the Fidelity Analyst Survey offers a unique perspective from the bottom up.
Fidelity Analyst Survey 2019: The end of optimism
An overview of the responses to Fidelity's 2019 Analyst Survey points to a slowdown in growth for many industries, but no imminent recession.
Analyst Survey 2019: The key findings explained
Fidelity's heads of research evaluate the data from this year's Analyst Survey and show what the findings tell us about the year ahead.
Analyst Survey 2019: China's slowdown, seen from the ground
Sentiment towards China for the year ahead is more downbeat than for other geographies but there are some pockets of brightness.
Sector by sector: Analyst Survey 2019
Across 10 sectors, only healthcare analysts showed an improvement in sentiment from last year.
Bull and bear cases for China in 2029
Fidelity analysts give bull and bear cases for consumption, financial, and property sectors in China in 2029
Power to the people: the democratisation of the utility sector
Power to the people: the democratisation of the utility sector. How battery storage will revolutionise the electric utility industry.
Fidelity Leading Indicator: FLIrting with disaster?
Perhaps ‘disaster’ is too strong a word to describe January’s Fidelity Leading Indicator (FLI) reading, but it is the worst result since 2012.
Fundamentals podcast: China and the impending smartphone revolution
Fundamentals, Fidelity's investment research podcast, unboxes the next smartphone revolution and discovers why China will be leading the charge.
Fundamentals podcast: Shipping and the new law that could stem the global economy
Fidelity's investment research podcast, looks at regulation designed to clamp down on shipping emissions and its potential unintended consequences.
Fidelity Leading Indicator: Qualified optimism or qualified pessimism
Our proprietary Fidelity Leading Indicator (FLI) is edging up towards the ‘top-left’ quadrant, which suggests that a trough could be approaching.
The best writing on Asia from around the investment world
These are the pieces which have informed our team as we prepared this edition on allocation to Asia.
A burden shared: bail-in bonds for GSIBs
What are bail-in bonds and what do they mean for investors?
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