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A scenario analysis of the US debt ceiling standoff
A scenario analysis of the US debt ceiling standoff
Chart Room: What 80 years of data (and 11 recessions) say about today’s macro outlook
Historically, a tightening in financial conditions like the one that we have seen over the last year invariably led to a recession.
Chart Room: Bank blow-ups and tight labour markets make a hard day’s night for the Fed
Chart Room: Bank blow-ups and tight labour markets make a hard day’s night for the Fed
ECB still hiking but markets are focusing on the end point
President Lagarde tries to deliver another hawkish shock, but markets sense we are near the end of the hiking cycle for the ECB.
Chart Room: Falling US retail sales suggest inflation may have peaked
Real retail sales have fallen significantly since 2021. This suggests core inflation could be due to ease soon - and has almost certainly peaked.
Europe’s unequal gas demand destruction
Europe is already reducing energy demand in response to record high prices. While shortages appear unlikely this winter, next year could be a different story.
Chart Room: A 100-year view of inflation and asset returns
Long run inflation data show equities and bonds both perform better when inflation is falling. But what about today’s world of persistent price rises?
Chart Room: A pain in the bottleneck for supply chains
There are tentative signs that substantial supply chain bottlenecks in the US are starting to ease.
June's Rich Pickings podcast: Where next for inflation
"The market will wonder: is The Fed talking more aggressively but actually still way behind the curve?" says CIO Andrew McCaffery in June's Rich Pickings.
Chart Room: Staying afloat amid a rising tide of debt
Central banks have been playing a key role in keeping higher debt loads affordable.
June's Rich Pickings podcast: Know your enemy
"The anaesthetist has shown up to give morphine [to the global economy] but the doctor's still not shown up to do surgery," says Portfolio Manager Amit Lodha.
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