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Louise Fribourg
Blog 1 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator signals broad-based recovery

Four out of five FLI sectors are experiencing both growth and acceleration, with only Consumer and Labour lagging.

Louise Fribourg + 1 other | 8 September 2020

Louise Fribourg
Blog 2 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator points to weak recovery

Business sentiment and trade are improving, among signals of a fragile recovery, but consumer confidence and industrial orders lag.

Louise Fribourg + 1 other | 12 August 2020

Louise Fribourg
Blog 2 min read

The Fidelity Leading Indicator finds a floor

The FLI now points to a quarterly contraction about 125 per cent of the magnitude of that seen in the depth of the GFC.

Louise Fribourg + 1 other | 16 July 2020

Louise Fribourg
Blog 2 min read

FLI takes another leg down despite lockdowns easing

The FLI now points to a quarterly contraction about 125 per cent of the magnitude of that seen in the depth of the GFC.

Louise Fribourg + 1 other | 9 June 2020

Ian Samson
Blog 2 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator shows broad weakness as the focus turns to recovery

The three-month Fidelity Leading Indicator growth rate is already halfway to the Global Financial Crisis trough.

Ian Samson + 1 other | 12 May 2020

Adnan Siddique
Blog 2 min read

Macro briefing: Clock ticking on further fiscal support

Macro briefing: Clock ticking on further fiscal support

Adnan Siddique | 9 April 2020

Ian Samson
Blog 2 min read

FLI: Consumer pain leads the way

The three-month Fidelity Leading Indicator growth rate is already halfway to the Global Financial Crisis trough.

Ian Samson + 1 other | 8 April 2020

Ian Samson
Blog 1 min read

FLI: Consumer confidence holds up amid broad-based slowdown

For the first time in two years the Fidelity Leading Indicator cycle tracker signals both below-trend growth and deceleration.

Ian Samson | 10 March 2020

Ian Samson
Blog 3 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator signals slowing global growth as coronavirus impact looms

The economic impact of the novel coronavirus outbreak is only just beginning to be captured by the latest FLI reading.

Ian Samson + 1 other | 11 February 2020

Ian Samson
Blog 2 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator: Marginal cooling but still positive

The global economy is still expected to grow into 2020, but at a subdued pace

Ian Samson | 9 December 2019

Ian Samson
Blog 3 min read

FLI: Surprisingly upbeat into Q4

The Fidelity Leading Indicator (FLI) showed firm improvement in September

Ian Samson | 9 October 2019

Jeremy Ocansey
Blog 2 min read

FLI: Another solid month indicates that global recession fears are overblown

Our Fidelity Leading Indicator boosts hopes that the worst is firmly behind us, and that the next move in global growth will be to the upside.

Jeremy Ocansey + 1 other | 9 September 2019

Ian Samson
Blog 2 min read

FLI: An 'uneasy' economic stabilisation ahead

The FLI suggests that even with the impending tariff escalation, we are far from a global recession

Ian Samson | 8 August 2019

Ian Samson
Article 2 min read

GEARs: Lower for (how much) longer?

Our GEARs have slipped back, reversing the improvement seen in the second quarter.

Ian Samson + 1 other | 18 July 2019

Ian Samson
Blog 2 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator: Clinging to optimism

Our FLI cycle tracker indicates the global economy is past the worst

Ian Samson + 1 other | 8 July 2019

Ian Samson
Blog 2 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator: Stronger data indicate a recovery

Improvement in global growth has been reassuringly broad-based

Ian Samson + 1 other | 10 June 2019

Ian Samson
Blog 2 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator: Red lights, not green shoots

Signs of more dovish central banks may have got markets more excited, but our FLI has not moved.

Ian Samson + 1 other | 11 March 2019

Ian Samson
Blog 3 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator: deeper drop, with no sector spared

The FLI Cycle Tracker plunged deeper into the bottom-left quadrant indicating growth below-trend and decelerating

Ian Samson | 7 February 2019

Ian Samson
Blog 2 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator: FLIrting with disaster?

Perhaps ‘disaster’ is too strong a word to describe January’s Fidelity Leading Indicator (FLI) reading, but it is the worst result since 2012.

Ian Samson | 9 January 2019

Ian Samson
Blog 3 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator: Deceleration after frontloading on US tariff worries

Our proprietary Fidelity Leading Indicator (FLI) now shows a deceleration trend, in contrast with the tentative stabilisation we had seen previously.

Ian Samson | 11 December 2018

Ian Samson
Blog 3 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator: Qualified optimism or qualified pessimism

Our proprietary Fidelity Leading Indicator (FLI) is edging up towards the ‘top-left’ quadrant, which suggests that a trough could be approaching.

Ian Samson | 11 October 2018

Ian Samson
Blog 2 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator: growth down, risks rising

Our proprietary Fidelity Leading Indicator (FLI) remains in the ‘growth negative and decelerating’ quadrant of its Cycle Tracker for the fourth straight month.

Ian Samson | 16 July 2018

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