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Ian Samson

Ian Samson - Portfolio Manager

Blog 2 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator shows record short-term growth momentum

All sectors are exhibiting significant strength, as policymakers seek to bridge economies to the hoped-for 2021 vaccine rollout.

Louise Fribourg + 1 other | 9 October 2020

Podcast 43 min listen

September's Rich Pickings podcast: Allocating for recovery

"The market is underestimating inflation. Reduce duration and look for income," says Chief Investment Officer Steve Ellis, in this month's Rich Pickings.

Richard Edgar + 5 others | 2 October 2020

Blog 1 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator signals broad-based recovery

Four out of five FLI sectors are experiencing both growth and acceleration, with only Consumer and Labour lagging.

Louise Fribourg + 1 other | 8 September 2020

Blog 2 min read

GEARs: Bursting through the ceiling?

Fidelity International’s GEAR (Gauges of Economic Activity in Real Time) activity indicators continue to rebound strongly.

Ian Samson + 1 other | 20 August 2020

Blog 2 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator points to weak recovery

Business sentiment and trade are improving, among signals of a fragile recovery, but consumer confidence and industrial orders lag.

Louise Fribourg + 1 other | 12 August 2020

Blog 2 min read

The Fidelity Leading Indicator finds a floor

The FLI now points to a quarterly contraction about 125 per cent of the magnitude of that seen in the depth of the GFC.

Louise Fribourg + 1 other | 16 July 2020

Blog 2 min read

GEARs: China roars while the global economy snores

Our Gauges of Economic Activity in Real time (GEARs), a proxy for three-month annualised growth, improved this month but remain in extreme hibernation.

Ian Samson + 1 other | 19 June 2020

Blog 2 min read

FLI takes another leg down despite lockdowns easing

The FLI now points to a quarterly contraction about 125 per cent of the magnitude of that seen in the depth of the GFC.

Louise Fribourg + 1 other | 9 June 2020

Article 1 min read

Chart Room: Mobility data shows most economies are rebounding slowly

Economic activity is being determined by virus response rather than slower-moving traditional industrial cycles. We need to adjust our toolkits accordingly.

Ian Samson + 2 others | 28 May 2020

Blog 2 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator shows broad weakness as the focus turns to recovery

The three-month Fidelity Leading Indicator growth rate is already halfway to the Global Financial Crisis trough.

Ian Samson + 1 other | 12 May 2020

Article 4 min read

China’s economy is turning the corner after a historically bad GDP contraction

China’s economy is turning the corner after a historically bad GDP contraction

Paras Anand + 3 others | 17 April 2020

Blog 2 min read

FLI: Consumer pain leads the way

The three-month Fidelity Leading Indicator growth rate is already halfway to the Global Financial Crisis trough.

Ian Samson + 1 other | 8 April 2020

Blog 1 min read

FLI: Consumer confidence holds up amid broad-based slowdown

For the first time in two years the Fidelity Leading Indicator cycle tracker signals both below-trend growth and deceleration.

Ian Samson | 10 March 2020

Blog 3 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator signals slowing global growth as coronavirus impact looms

The economic impact of the novel coronavirus outbreak is only just beginning to be captured by the latest FLI reading.

Ian Samson + 1 other | 11 February 2020

Blog 3 min read

US China Phase 1: Apocalypse Postponed

'Phase 1’ of the US- China trade pact reveals no credible path forward, so instead the two sides have chosen to stand still

Ian Samson | 16 January 2020

Blog 2 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator: Still strong but approaching the limit

The Fidelity Leading Indicator's acceleration is circling back towards zero after a period of strong improvement.

Ian Samson + 1 other | 14 January 2020

Blog 2 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator: Marginal cooling but still positive

The global economy is still expected to grow into 2020, but at a subdued pace

Ian Samson | 9 December 2019

Article 2 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator: Keeping the dream alive

The FLI is keeping the dream of a solid acceleration into 2020 alive, and points to the worst being in the rear-view mirror.

Ian Samson | 26 November 2019

Blog 2 min read

Global GEARs whisper stabilisation

Our global proprietary Gauges of Economic Activity in Real-Time (GEARs) are starting to appear convincing in their stabilisation.

Ian Samson + 1 other | 19 November 2019

Blog 2 min read

Global GEAR suggests economy remains on weak footing

Our proprietary Gauges of Economic Activity in Real-Time (GEAR) is flat but there is plenty of divergence at the individual country level.

Ian Samson | 22 October 2019

Blog 3 min read

FLI: Surprisingly upbeat into Q4

The Fidelity Leading Indicator (FLI) showed firm improvement in September

Ian Samson | 9 October 2019

Article 2 min read

Investment Outlook Q4 2019: Bending, not breaking

The Investment Outlook is our flagship quarterly outlook publication that outlines our views on all the major asset classes and details the 'house view'.

Paras Anand + 8 others | 7 October 2019

Blog 2 min read

Global GEARs suggest stable and subdued activity, now near levels of recent troughs

Our Global GEAR, an unweighted average across all countries, nudged higher and is now dead flat year-to-date.

Ian Samson | 20 September 2019

Blog 2 min read

FLI: Another solid month indicates that global recession fears are overblown

Our Fidelity Leading Indicator boosts hopes that the worst is firmly behind us, and that the next move in global growth will be to the upside.

Jeremy Ocansey + 1 other | 9 September 2019

Blog 3 min read

Fed Chair Powell strikes the right balance at Jackson Hole

Probability of December rate cut has increased.

Ian Samson | 23 August 2019

Blog 2 min read

Grit in the GEARs, but global economy not grinding to a halt

Some grit in the GEARs persists, especially in Europe and some emerging markets, but the global economy has yet to grind to a halt.

Ian Samson + 1 other | 21 August 2019

Blog 2 min read

FLI: An 'uneasy' economic stabilisation ahead

The FLI suggests that even with the impending tariff escalation, we are far from a global recession

Ian Samson | 8 August 2019

Blog 3 min read

ECB signals further cuts and a new round of QE in September

The dovish outlook, coupled with prospects of a further stimulus, is expected to fuel the demand for yield that we have seen so far this year.

Ian Samson + 1 other | 25 July 2019

Article 1 min read

Investment Outlook Q3 2019: A delicate balance

The Investment Outlook is our flagship quarterly outlook publication that outlines our views on all the major asset classes and details the 'house view'.

Paras Anand + 7 others | 25 July 2019

Article 2 min read

GEARs: Lower for (how much) longer?

Our GEARs have slipped back, reversing the improvement seen in the second quarter.

Ian Samson + 1 other | 18 July 2019

Blog 2 min read

China data improves but nascent recovery could halt further stimulus

Although the latest GDP figures show the worst may be behind us, there is no room for policy complacency.

Ian Samson + 1 other | 15 July 2019

Blog 2 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator: Clinging to optimism

Our FLI cycle tracker indicates the global economy is past the worst

Ian Samson + 1 other | 8 July 2019

Article 2 min read

US-China G20 trade talks: “Back on track” to destination unknown

US-China G20 trade talks: “Back on track” to destination unknown

Ian Samson | 1 July 2019

Blog 1 min read

Fed flashes easing signals

The Federal Reserve kept rates on hold as expected and also signaled that cuts - not hikes - are around the corner, amid signs of weakening economic activity.

Ian Samson + 1 other | 19 June 2019

Blog 1 min read

Central bank fears, calmer GEARs?

Our proprietary Gauges of Economic Activity in Real-Time (GEARs) show the latest Global GEAR looks stable and decently above its recent lows.

Ian Samson + 1 other | 19 June 2019

Blog 2 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator: Stronger data indicate a recovery

Improvement in global growth has been reassuringly broad-based

Ian Samson + 1 other | 10 June 2019

Blog 1 min read

ECB takes a slightly more hawkish tone

The central bank however pushed back raising rates until at least mid-2020.

Andrea Iannelli + 1 other | 6 June 2019

Blog 1 min read

Downshifting GEARs as global rebound softens

Downshifting GEARs as global rebound softens

Ian Samson + 1 other | 20 May 2019

Blog 2 min read

China’s April data disappoints market expectations of resilience

Data on industrial production, retail sales and investment all surprised to the downside.

Ian Samson + 1 other | 15 May 2019

Blog 1 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator: Green shoots versus trade war shots

Fidelity Leading Indicator: Green shoots versus trade war shots

Ian Samson + 1 other | 8 May 2019

Blog 1 min read

The Fed remains firmly on hold

The overall message at the US Federal Reserve’s May meeting was clear and simple - it is firmly on hold for now.

Anna Stupnytska + 1 other | 1 May 2019

Blog 2 min read

EM outlook: For China and the Fed, old habits die hard

China and the US Federal Reserve are falling back on old habits, which should provide some desperately-needed comfort to emerging markets.

Ian Samson | 30 April 2019

Blog 2 min read

Amid China’s grab bag of economic data, surging credit growth will do the real work

A closer look at China’s first quarter GDP data reveals some mixed messages about the country’s economic performance.

Ian Samson | 18 April 2019

Blog 1 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator: A sign of life?

Our leading indicator is at a crossroads

Ian Samson + 1 other | 11 April 2019

Blog 2 min read

EM outlook: Easier conditions, tougher growth

After a challenging end to last year, the start of 2019 has brought some tentative stability to emerging markets. But it is too early to issue the all-clear.

Ian Samson | 8 April 2019

Blog 1 min read

Emerging market GEARs outperform sluggish Europe and Japan

Global GEARs suggest stability over the past two months, after a volatile end to 2018.

Ian Samson + 1 other | 18 March 2019

Blog 2 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator: Red lights, not green shoots

Signs of more dovish central banks may have got markets more excited, but our FLI has not moved.

Ian Samson + 1 other | 11 March 2019

Blog 5 min read

What does the US-China trade-talk extension mean for investors?

While headlines suggest that the US and China are inching closer to a deal, it’s clear that there are still a range of questions that need to be addressed.

George Efstathopoulos + 1 other | 4 March 2019

Blog 1 min read

GEAR update: US and Japan join the slowdown

GEAR update: US and Japan join the slowdown

Ian Samson + 1 other | 27 February 2019

Blog 3 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator: deeper drop, with no sector spared

The FLI Cycle Tracker plunged deeper into the bottom-left quadrant indicating growth below-trend and decelerating

Ian Samson | 7 February 2019

Blog 2 min read

Stuck in low GEAR

Absolute GEAR levels do not make for particularly pleasant reading. The DM average is hovering around its lowest since mid-2016.

Ian Samson | 24 January 2019

Blog 5 min read

Emerging Markets' glass might become ‘half-full’ - or China might smash it

Emerging Markets glass might become ‘half-full’ - or China might smash it

Ian Samson | 14 January 2019

Article 10 min read

Choose your own adventure: China’s economic destiny

What does it mean for the rest of the world if in a decade's time China becomes the preeminent economic superpower, or gets stuck in the middle-income trap?

Anna Stupnytska + 4 others | 11 January 2019

Blog 4 min read

2019 China Outlook- Time to enter the tiger’s den?

We explore the opportunities in China equities and fixed income in 2019.

George Efstathopoulos + 3 others | 10 January 2019

Blog 2 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator: FLIrting with disaster?

Perhaps ‘disaster’ is too strong a word to describe January’s Fidelity Leading Indicator (FLI) reading, but it is the worst result since 2012.

Ian Samson | 9 January 2019

Article 2 min read

China and emerging market GEARs deteriorate in December

Emerging market economic indicators deteriorate in December

Ian Samson | 19 December 2018

Blog 3 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator: Deceleration after frontloading on US tariff worries

Our proprietary Fidelity Leading Indicator (FLI) now shows a deceleration trend, in contrast with the tentative stabilisation we had seen previously.

Ian Samson | 11 December 2018

Blog 2 min read

All eyes on Buenos Aires for make-or-break G20 summit

The odds of a truce or no deal at the G20 are balanced.

Ian Samson | 30 November 2018

Blog 3 min read

EM Outlook: It’s been a long time coming, but a change is going to come

Risks remain to the downside for emerging markets due to China’s slowing growth and toughening global conditions.

Ian Samson | 28 November 2018

Blog 2 min read

Eurozone, China GEARs show deterioration in November

US GEAR continues its strong run, even as China is at its weakest since April 2015 while the UK is at its lowest level since the referendum result.

Ian Samson + 1 other | 20 November 2018

Blog 3 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator - hit by 'front-loading'?

Our FLI is still in the growth below trend and decelerating quadrant. We still have to assess the impact of 'front-loading' on any nascent positivity.

Ian Samson + 1 other | 9 November 2018

Blog 2 min read

As the BOJ stealthily normalises, the yen will follow

The BOJ appears to be stealthily normalising while keeping rates extremely low. But small steps for Japan’s central bank could be big steps for its currency.

Stuart Rumble + 2 others | 31 October 2018

Blog 2 min read

Emerging market GEARs weaken further in September

Our macro indicator shows emerging markets are under pressure

Ian Samson + 1 other | 17 October 2018

Blog 3 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator: Qualified optimism or qualified pessimism

Our proprietary Fidelity Leading Indicator (FLI) is edging up towards the ‘top-left’ quadrant, which suggests that a trough could be approaching.

Ian Samson | 11 October 2018

Blog 1 min read

GEAR levels show exuberant US economy

Recent economic data show an exuberant US economy, stabilisation in emerging markets and only a slight tick-down in Europe.

Ian Samson + 1 other | 25 September 2018

Podcast 20 min listen

September's Rich Pickings podcast: A world at the mercy of America

The US is playing an increasingly central role in world markets. Why does this matter?

James Bateman + 4 others | 19 September 2018

Blog 2 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator: the trough isn’t here, but could be getting near

Our proprietary Fidelity Leading Indicator has now registered six straight months in the ‘growth negative and decelerating’ quadrant of its Cycle Tracker.

Ian Samson | 12 September 2018

Blog 1 min read

GEAR levels show US economic exuberance could continue into H2

Our Gauges of Economic Activity in Real-Time (GEAR) show that US GEAR levels of 4 per cent almost exactly matched the second quarter GDP print.

Ian Samson | 30 July 2018

Blog 3 min read

Emerging Markets outlook: Not out of the woods

Despite better data in June, the Fidelity Leading Indicator remains negative, especially in key EM-sensitive areas like global trade and commodities.

Ian Samson | 19 July 2018

Blog 2 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator: growth down, risks rising

Our proprietary Fidelity Leading Indicator (FLI) remains in the ‘growth negative and decelerating’ quadrant of its Cycle Tracker for the fourth straight month.

Ian Samson | 16 July 2018

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