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US and China agree to reduce tariffs
The agreement to lower tariffs reduces some uncertainty around markets. But longer-term, structural changes will continue to play out.
Fed will wait and see on tariffs
March’s meeting saw the US Federal Reserve firmly in wait and see mode. Tariffs and growth are the issues.
ECB getting close to neutral (but not there yet)
Today’s monetary policy statement hints at a possible pause in rate cuts next month.
Fed goes big but volatility ahead
The labour market has pushed the Fed into more aggressive action. What it does next still hangs in the balance.
US recession fears rise, but fundamentals remain resilient
There are good explanations for last week’s soft jobs data. Growth is unlikely to fall off a cliff, and a soft landing is still our most expected outcome.
ECB in no rush to cut
While the odds on a soft landing for the developed world are rising, European growth is sluggish and we think the ECB will soon be under pressure to cut rates
Signs of a dovish tilt from China’s Politburo
China’s leaders have voiced support for the economy, which is moderating after an initial bounce from the re-opening.
No holidays for central banks: Where we think there’s more to come
A busy month for central banks delivered expected hikes in Europe and the US, but a surprise tweak to policy in Japan.
Central banks feel the heat of persistent inflation
Central banks feel the heat of persistent inflation
First Republic Bank and the outlook for the financial system
First Republic Bank and the outlook for the financial system
Fed hikes into the banking storm as hard landing risks rise
As expected, the impact of the past fortnight’s banking troubles was writ large on the Federal Reserve’s March meeting. But it is still raising rates.
Inflation is slowing, the Fed may too
The opening data salvos of 2023 add to the case for the Federal Reserve to slow down on raising interest rates
Fed seeks to dampen ‘pivot mania’
Fighting inflation remains the Federal Reserve’s sole objective, with no pivot in sight.
ECB doves back in charge despite jumbo hike
The European Central Bank's 75 basis point hike in October may be its last jumbo move as the threat of recession looms large over the euro area.
Right-wing Italian coalition brings more risks in Europe
Right-wing Italian coalition brings more risks in Europe
UK macro under stress
The new UK government unveiled the promised "mini budget" last Friday that slashed taxes across the board.
Fed matches hawkish rhetoric with hawkish action
Fed matches hawkish rhetoric with hawkish action
ECB hawks rule, for now
While guidance remains hawkish on further interest rate hikes into 2023, implementing such a path will be hard in practice.
Chair Powell bares his inflation teeth
Fed Chair Jerome Powell warns against loosening monetary policy early, noting that interest rates will have to keep rising to bring inflation under control.
Inflation Reduction Act: Muted near-term macro impacts but a strong statement on sustainability
US inflation reduction bill will help cut emissions while federal deficit reduction will take time to come through.
A dovish hike but Fed may be forced to do more
A dovish hike but Fed may be forced to do more as labour market remains strong
ECB hikes 50bp but window to hike further is closing
The ECB finally raises interest rates
Fed delivers on the hint - hard landing risks have risen
The Fed delivered on hint to raise rates by 75bp to bring down inflation. We see increased risks of a hard landing and remain cautious on equities and credit.
ECB: Too much too soon could be a riskier strategy
The European Central Bank lays out its tightening path.
50, not 75, is the new 25 - Temporary relief or start of a pivot?
While the Fed will likely hike less than market expectations, we expect the hawkish stance to remain for now.
Fed resurrects Volckerism - but for how long?
The US central bank came out fighting after delivering its first rise in rates this cycle, but it is likely to be constrained by a cocktail of risks to growth
ECB faces huge dilemma as Russian invasion of Ukraine unfolds
The ECB’s accelerated reduction in asset purchases came as a surprise. There may be more changes to come.
Cautious positioning required as Ukraine escalation adds to stagflationary risks
The overnight escalation of the Russia-Ukraine crisis is a worrying development with serious macro and market implications.
Sanctions fallout from Ukraine escalation likely to hit capital not commodities
Sanctions fallout from Ukraine escalation likely to hit capital not commodities
Chart Room: Fingers in the punch bowl
Central bankers seeking to deploy rate hikes against inflation risk collateral damage as tighter policy threatens already swollen debt servicing costs.
ECB joins the hawkish bandwagon
Hawkish pivot gives the Governing Council more policy flexibility.
Fed turns from friend to foe
Pace and extent of tightening cycle depends on the inflation dynamics and the terminal level of real rates the economy and markets can digest.
Catch-2022 policy dilemma hits markets
Central bank policy stance and geopolitical risks put pressure on markets.
Hawkish Fed enters 2022 with a catch
Three rate hikes in 2022 could be a challenge.
Omicron: game-changer or waiting game?
New variant has the potential to be a game-changer for the near-term macro and market outlook.
Fed signals a fast taper as 2022 becomes the new lift-off battleground
Fed signals a fast taper as 2022 becomes the new lift-off battleground
Fed disconnects timelines for tapering and rate rises
At the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, Federal Reserve chairman Powell confirmed that the test of "substantial further progress" on inflation has now been met.
Mapping US election tail risks: a framework-based approach
Mapping US election tail risks: a framework-based approach
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