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Outlook scenario 1: Cyclical recession - our base case
A cyclical recession would see a moderate economic contraction followed by a return to growth in late 2024 or early 2025.
Outlook 2024: More risk, higher yields, and four ways forward
Profound changes across economies and markets make forecasting unusually difficult in 2024. Instead, we offer four potential paths the world could take.
Selling like hot chilli crab: a look at Singapore’s local bond boom
While debt issuance has slowed around the world, the Singapore dollar bond market is in a pocket of growth driven by policy tailwinds and an influx of funds.
Chart Room: An inflection point for Chinese equities?
There may be pressure on valuations as international investors adopt a wait-and-see approach, but the long-term outlook continues to be positive.
Planetary risk: Mapping climate pathways to macro and strategic asset allocation
A paper introducing the main points of consideration for integrating climate change outcomes into capital market assumptions.
Macau rebound a test case for China’s outbound travel
The ‘Las Vegas of the East’ is betting its long-standing travel bubble with mainland China can endure.
Chart Room: Equity volatility eases as Treasury yields rise
The VIX has fallen below a key technical level, suggesting a new wave of investor optimism.
Chart Room: EM outperformance could be sustained, if commodities are a guide
This week’s Chart Room shows the historical correlation of EM equities with commodities, which suggests that the breakout could be sustained.
Chart Room: Retail investors pile into the fastest growing stocks
Retail investors' market participation is extreme not only in volume, but also concentration.
Chart Room: Emerging markets and the reopening trade
Emerging EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) and Latin American stocks are particularly well positioned to reap the benefits of reopening.
Chart Room: Asian equities diverge, creating opportunities
The difference in performance between equity markets in East Asia and South Asia (India, ASEAN nations) is the largest in nearly 15 years.
Chart room: Despite a recent rally, high yield bonds still look cheap
For US high yield, valuations look historically cheap on a relative basis - especially when compared to equities.
Chart Room: QE expectations vs. reality, market moves
Market expectations of future asset purchases by the Fed have an even greater influence than the purchases themselves.
Chart Room: Mobility data shows most economies are rebounding slowly
Economic activity is being determined by virus response rather than slower-moving traditional industrial cycles. We need to adjust our toolkits accordingly.
Strong underpinnings to Asia’s investment grade bond market
Asia’s investment grade bond market looks attractive as we continue working through the Covid-19 outbreak, and global coordinated stimulus take effect.
Despite macro challenges, pockets of resilience in Chinese corporate earnings
Some bright spots in recent earnings reports suggest interesting opportunities
Forecasting markets in 2029: 10 years is a long time in finance
Long term forecasting and how Fidelity constructs its 10-year capital market assumptions .
Choose your own adventure: China’s economic destiny
What does it mean for the rest of the world if in a decade's time China becomes the preeminent economic superpower, or gets stuck in the middle-income trap?
2019 China Outlook- Time to enter the tiger’s den?
We explore the opportunities in China equities and fixed income in 2019.
China and emerging market GEARs deteriorate in December
Emerging market economic indicators deteriorate in December
Multi Asset Outlook 2019: Complacency on inflation stalks markets
Fidelity International's multi asset outlook for 2019 examines the risk of a shock to markets from higher-than-expected inflation.
MSCI A-share inclusion is a milestone for China’s onshore capital markets
It’s a game-changer for both the mainland and investors, even though, on the face of it, it’s not yet a particularly high-stakes game.
This content is for investment professionals only.