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Why equity investors are rediscovering Japan
Global investors under-allocated to Japanese stocks risk missing out on big improvements in corporate earnings yields and capital returns.
Chart Room: Retail therapy for Japan’s ‘lowflation’ headache
The Bank of Japan has struggled to convince the public that inflation will stick. But recent data shows there could be a shift in consumers’ mentality.
Central banks fighting yesterday’s battles as credit crunch looms
Central banks fighting yesterday’s battles as credit crunch looms
Navigating the Polycrisis: A shift in the landscape
The perma-crisis that has coloured recent years has taken on new tones in the first months of 2023.
Fed hikes into the banking storm as hard landing risks rise
As expected, the impact of the past fortnight’s banking troubles was writ large on the Federal Reserve’s March meeting. But it is still raising rates.
Chart Room: Bank blow-ups and tight labour markets make a hard day’s night for the Fed
Chart Room: Bank blow-ups and tight labour markets make a hard day’s night for the Fed
A hawkish ECB stays the course despite market turmoil
The ECB stuck to its 50 basis point hike despite financial stability concerns. Tightening credit could hit the real economy earlier, and harder, than expected.
The Fed can’t paint over the cracks for long
Fidelity International's Chief Investment Officer for fixed income on what the SVB collapse means for the Fed and monetary policy.
Inflation’s bite won’t spoil China’s recovery
Spiralling prices were a headache for much of the world in 2022, and some are asking if it’s China’s turn.
Chart Room: Sentiment turns positive, but can it hold?
Chart Room: Sentiment turns positive, but can it hold?
Analyst Survey 2023: China poised to lead expansion in Asia
China is entering the Year of the Rabbit poised to bound free from Covid lockdowns, and most Fidelity analysts expect it will be in expansion by end of 2023.
Analyst Survey 2023: Light at the end of the tunnel
Boards are in damage-control mode, yet Fidelity’s 2023 Analyst Survey shows more than half of analysts expect the business cycle to turn within the year.
Fundamentals: China’s reopening and supply chains
China’s reopening and supply chains
ECB still hiking but markets are focusing on the end point
President Lagarde tries to deliver another hawkish shock, but markets sense we are near the end of the hiking cycle for the ECB.
Chart Room: Employee welfare is still a priority
Companies’ recent push to focus on employee wellbeing is unlikely to fade, even as an economic downturn puts pressure on business
Inflation is slowing, the Fed may too
The opening data salvos of 2023 add to the case for the Federal Reserve to slow down on raising interest rates
Analyst Survey 2023: Inflation relief in sight
Fidelity International's annual Analyst Survey suggests cost pressures for companies will peak by the end of the first quarter of 2023.
Chart Room: Looking back on an inflationary Catch-2022
Eight charts that capture the inflationary torment of 2022 and shine a light on what’s ahead.
ECB rates stance raises risks of financial instability for 2023
If the ECB matches its hawkish rhetoric with policy action, concerns about the bloc's periphery may return, adding to concerns for investors next year.
Rich Pickings podcast: Outlook 2023 - navigating the polycrisis
Richard Edgar is joined by Fidelity's cross-asset investment team to discuss the 2023 Outlook.
Fed meeting: Powell provides another hawkish push
The dip in headline inflation numbers may have led the US Federal Reserve to slow down on policy in December, but longer-term risks to growth are piling up.
Chart Room: Credit markets look cautious to a (de)fault
Markets are pricing too much bad news into investment grade bonds, especially now that inflation appears to have peaked.
Fidelity Analyst Survey: Inflation starts to peak
November’s survey of Fidelity’s 150 sector analysts highlights the pain businesses and households are experiencing, but that inflation is already easing.
Chart Room: Falling US retail sales suggest inflation may have peaked
Real retail sales have fallen significantly since 2021. This suggests core inflation could be due to ease soon - and has almost certainly peaked.
New world, new playbook
We move into 2023 in a changed world, and the opportunities and challenges will be different for investors going forward.
Outlook 2023: Download the assets
Find Fidelity International's full 2023 Investment Outlook here
Equities 2023: Market uncertainty to remain amid tighter policy
We expect a high degree of volatility for global equities in 2023. However, diverging earnings expectations will present select opportunities
Overview: Rates overshoot risks inflation bust
Inflation has dogged markets this year, but there is a risk that overtightening by central banks will trigger a sharp recession, an 'inflation bust'
Bonds are back in town
For over a decade, one of the main cards in investors’ pack - solid and steadily yielding government bonds - has been off the table. That era has ended.
Fed seeks to dampen ‘pivot mania’
Fighting inflation remains the Federal Reserve’s sole objective, with no pivot in sight.
ECB doves back in charge despite jumbo hike
The European Central Bank's 75 basis point hike in October may be its last jumbo move as the threat of recession looms large over the euro area.
Europe’s unequal gas demand destruction
Europe is already reducing energy demand in response to record high prices. While shortages appear unlikely this winter, next year could be a different story.
Chart Room: US housing dip may hit sentiment hard
US real estate was at the centre of the financial crash in 2008. The US housing sector is back in focus again as unaffordability returns to peaks from 2005-7
Q4 Asia Investment Outlook: Potential bright spot amid a challenging winter
Asia is insulated to a degree from the struggles facing Europe, and though it faces its own problems, we are turning more positive on the region.
Q4 Investment Outlook: Into the unknown
Fidelity International's Q4 Investment Outlook looks at the increasing likelihood of a hard landing.
Analyst Survey: Cost pressures hit a plateau
Input cost inflation is starting to stabilise, according to the latest Fidelity International Analyst Survey, amid signs of demand destruction.
The Fed’s dilemma in three charts
The risk that the Fed will go too far in trying to bring inflation under control is becoming more acute.
UK macro under stress
The new UK government unveiled the promised "mini budget" last Friday that slashed taxes across the board.
Fed matches hawkish rhetoric with hawkish action
Fed matches hawkish rhetoric with hawkish action
Chart Room: China takes own path in a tightening world
China is bucking the trend towards higher interest rates, and the resulting yield divergence has huge implications for bond investors and currency markets.
ECB hawks rule, for now
While guidance remains hawkish on further interest rate hikes into 2023, implementing such a path will be hard in practice.
Chart Room: Interest rates won’t fix the euro’s problems this time
Chart Room: Interest rates won’t fix the euro’s problems this time
Chart Room: What can governments do about Europe’s soaring energy bills?
How might governments in Europe seek to manage soaring energy bills?
Chair Powell bares his inflation teeth
Fed Chair Jerome Powell warns against loosening monetary policy early, noting that interest rates will have to keep rising to bring inflation under control.
Chart Room: The plunge in US consumer sentiment
The soaring cost of living has pushed US consumer sentiment to an all-time low.
Rich Pickings podcast: Where next for consumers and a download from Silicon Valley
Fresh from Silicon Valley, Hyun Ho Sohn and Jonathan Tseng join Richard Edgar to discuss how the tech sector is faring.
A dovish hike but Fed may be forced to do more
A dovish hike but Fed may be forced to do more as labour market remains strong
Chart room: Inflation is broader, and stickier
Today’s inflation is different from that of a year ago. Now, inflation is spread across a much wider basket of components.
ECB hikes 50bp but window to hike further is closing
The ECB finally raises interest rates
Chart Room: Global sentiment sinking fast
Fidelity International analysts detect growing signs of recession by year’s end.
Q3 Asia Investment Outlook: China recovery likely as restrictions ease
Asia stands in a relatively strong position amid a global reset in markets.
The ingredients are there for a wage-price spiral
After the surge in inflation, will wages follow? Our analysts think they will.
Q3 Investment Outlook: The Great Reset
Central banks have tried to strike a balance between reducing inflation by tightening financial conditions and mitigating the impact on economic growth.
Chart room: Japan is avoiding the worst of supply-side inflation
Chart room: Japan is avoiding the worst of supply-side inflation
Fed delivers on the hint - hard landing risks have risen
The Fed delivered on hint to raise rates by 75bp to bring down inflation. We see increased risks of a hard landing and remain cautious on equities and credit.
ECB: Too much too soon could be a riskier strategy
The European Central Bank lays out its tightening path.
Chart Room: Expectations around rising input costs are starting to moderate
Chart Room: Expectations around rising input costs are starting to moderate
Chart Room: Valuations look more reasonable but there may be more to come
Chart Room: Valuations look more reasonable but there may be more to come
Rich Pickings podcast: 'The rules of the game have changed'
'The rules of the game have changed,' how should investors recalibrate for this new phase in markets?
The last of the doves: BoJ unlikely to change course anytime soon
The last of the doves: BoJ unlikely to change course anytime soon
CIO podcast: Growth risks and the safe harbours for portfolios
Richard Edgar speaks to Fidelity's Global Chief Investment Officer Andrew McCaffery about growth risks and safe harbours for portfolios.
Now and zen: Japan’s quiet rise
Inflation may be a scourge elsewhere, but Japan is unruffled. Instead, the world’s third-largest economy is showcasing its appeal to investors.
Chart Room: As others hike rates, can China’s easing policy remain a cut above?
Cuts to the reserve requirement ratio remain China’s monetary policy weapon of choice. How they are wielded highlights the tightrope policymakers must walk.
Corporates weigh the cost of long-term Russia exits
Our latest Fidelity International Analyst Survey suggests that for many companies Russia may be un-investable for years to come
50, not 75, is the new 25 - Temporary relief or start of a pivot?
While the Fed will likely hike less than market expectations, we expect the hawkish stance to remain for now.
The Investor's Guide to China podcast: Supply Chains
Now over two years into this pandemic and the world is still battling some serious supply chain disruptions.
Re-globalisation in the age of Asia's supply chain crunch
Even the best-laid plans across the global manufacturing industry haven’t kept pace with a swiftly evolving siege of pressures on supply chains.
Chart Room: Three structural factors making for stickier inflation
We don't expect global inflation rates to remain at today's levels, but we see several medium-term factors that should keep upward pressure on inflation.
Chart Room: US yield curve could steepen further out
We are sceptical of the economic scenarios implied by the current pricing of the medium and long parts of the US yield curve.
Q2 Asia Investment Outlook: Region sees opportunity amid volatility
Fidelity International's investment outlook for the second quarter for Asia sees regional opportunity amid the global volatility
Q2 Investment Outlook: The “Grand Chessboard” reconfigured; stagflation risks intensify
The global order is reconfigured and stagflation risks intensify.
China as a new safe haven?
Looming stagflation and war effects have global investors searching for havens. China represents a less conventional option with diversification benefits.
Titanium and planes: Ukraine conflict spells new hit for global supply chains
The invasion of Ukraine and lockdowns in Asia signal more disruption for corporate supply chains, just as companies thought they were recovering from Covid-19
Stagflationary dynamics still in the background
As the conflict in Ukraine moves into its fifth week, volatility looks set to continue and the outlook is marred by the threats to growth
Chart Room: Ukraine war adds to inflation and brings further supply chain woes
As the appalling human cost of the war in Ukraine continues to grow, the knock-on effects for the global economy are also becoming clearer.
High near-term uncertainty keeps us cautious
Lockdowns in China and the risk of recession in Europe are adding to the list of uncertainties facing investors.
ECB faces huge dilemma as Russian invasion of Ukraine unfolds
The ECB’s accelerated reduction in asset purchases came as a surprise. There may be more changes to come.
Chart Room: Russia’s war in Ukraine is making metals more precious at any price
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is causing severe disruption to European commodity markets, exacerbating low inventories and threatening outright shortages.
Searching for safe havens amid a stagflation shock
High inflation and damaged growth will define the macro outlook for several quarters
Chart Room: Ukraine war cuts rate hike expectations
Rate expectations have dipped downwards in Europe and the US, but we expect the Federal Reserve to stick to its hawkish narrative for now.
Stagflation risks intensify as energy markets take centre stage
Stagflation risks intensify as energy markets take centre stage
Fidelity CIO: Stagflationary consequences of Ukraine crisis intensify policy dilemma
An environment of stagflation is increasingly likely to be maintained rather than to ease off over the coming months.
Ukraine invasion threatens bumpy landing for global stocks
While we are not yet talking about uncharted territory for stock markets, the Ukraine invasion fundamentally challenges the market environment.
Russian and Ukrainian debt comes under pressure
Our base case from a fixed income perspective is now for a more severe and protracted conflict.
Cautious positioning required as Ukraine escalation adds to stagflationary risks
The overnight escalation of the Russia-Ukraine crisis is a worrying development with serious macro and market implications.
Analyst Survey results and investment implications
Our experts discuss the results of this year's Analyst Survey and explore the implications for investors.
Analyst Survey 2022: Inflation is back, but will it last?
Analysts expect price pressures to be higher in 2022, posing risks businesses haven't seen for over a decade.
Chart Room: Rising rates aren’t always bad for ‘low vol’ strategies
Rising bond yields don’t automatically mean bad news for low volatility strategies; understanding why requires a closer look at each cycle of rate increases.
Chart Room: Fingers in the punch bowl
Central bankers seeking to deploy rate hikes against inflation risk collateral damage as tighter policy threatens already swollen debt servicing costs.
Chart Room: Covid recovery tops the list of themes for 2022
Latest survey of Fidelity analysts reveals companies' key concerns for the next 12 months.
Fed turns from friend to foe
Pace and extent of tightening cycle depends on the inflation dynamics and the terminal level of real rates the economy and markets can digest.
Chart Room: Home is where the supply shortage is
Supply has never looked tighter in the US housing market. Construction backlogs persist and prices climb as homebuyers appear undeterred by looming rate hikes.
Chart Room: 2021’s long goodbye to transitory inflation
Five charts that show the inflationary impact of 2021’s reopening cycle
Hawkish Fed enters 2022 with a catch
Three rate hikes in 2022 could be a challenge.
Asia’s shifting growth model
Market leadership continues to evolve across Asia-Pacific, with potential inflation making some markets look more resilient than others.
Don’t get bearish on duration yet
Record debt levels mean central banks cannot normalise aggressively.
Coming of age
Inflation is back, the ‘new normal’ for office use is still unclear and the low-carbon transition is changing the relationship between landlord and tenant.
The Catch-22 dynamic
In 2022 the major central banks will have to decide what to do about higher inflation, which we believe will be stickier than they currently expect.
The policy paradox
2021 brought the recovery many had hoped for. But no one could describe it as ‘getting back to normal’.
Asia’s shifting growth model
Market leadership continues to evolve across Asia-Pacific, with potential inflation making some markets look more resilient than others.
Coming of age
Inflation is back, the ‘new normal’ for office use is still unclear and the low-carbon transition is changing the relationship between landlord and tenant.
Don’t get bearish on duration yet
Record debt levels mean central banks cannot normalise aggressively.
The Catch-22 dynamic
In 2022 the major central banks will have to decide what to do about higher inflation, which we believe will be stickier than they currently expect.
The policy paradox
2021 brought the recovery many had hoped for. But no one could describe it as ‘getting back to normal’.
Chart Room: A 100-year view of inflation and asset returns
Long run inflation data show equities and bonds both perform better when inflation is falling. But what about today’s world of persistent price rises?
The Fed finds flexibility in QE tapering
The Fed finds flexibility in QE tapering timeline
Carbon pricing is coming but watch out for greenflation
Carbon pricing is an inescapable tool in the race to net zero, according to Fidelity International’s latest Analyst Survey.
Chart Room: Is inflation here to stay?
Companies face a mix of transitory and structural inflationary pressures, according to Fidelity International’s latest analyst survey.
Chart Room: Fidelity analysts temper expectations for margin growth
Fidelity International’s latest monthly analyst survey suggests that the outlook for margins is moderating from elevated levels.
Asia eyes a tantrum-free taper this time
A faster-than-expected tapering by the Federal Reserve remains a risk for Asian bond markets, but investors have been reassured by the latest policy signals.
A podium moment for Japan’s markets, too?
Japan stocks have long been consigned to tactical trading by global investors, but positive catalysts are emerging in a post-Covid inflationary world.
Chart Room: A pain in the bottleneck for supply chains
There are tentative signs that substantial supply chain bottlenecks in the US are starting to ease.
Chart Room: Bond markets tempt FAIT amid prospects for a steeper US yield curve
The market sees risks that the Fed will not accommodate a large inflation overshoot, but we think the yield curve may have flattened too far.
Chart Room: Sentiment moderates amid rising costs and slower growth
Fidelity International’s latest monthly analyst survey reveals that the outlook for management sentiment is moderating as costs continue to rise.
Chart Room: Gimme shelter (from inflation)
Shelter inflation continues to hold the key for forecasting inflation pressure in the US.
June's Rich Pickings podcast: Where next for inflation
"The market will wonder: is The Fed talking more aggressively but actually still way behind the curve?" says CIO Andrew McCaffery in June's Rich Pickings.
Policy credibility remains key macro risk following hawkish Fed meeting
Chair Powell says Fed is considering beginning discussions on tapering.
Chart Room: Fidelity analysts expect inflationary pressures to keep rising for now
Inflationary pressures are picking up, according to Fidelity International’s latest monthly analyst survey.
Chart Room: An uneven supercycle for commodities?
Most commodity prices have been strong this year, spurring talk of a potential supercycle. But the returns could be more dispersed from here.
Chart Room: Rapid reopening drives inflation higher
US headline consumer prices have risen at the fastest pace in 13 years due to positive base effects, rising energy prices and the reopening of the economy.
Chart Room: Why dividends make sense in an inflationary environment
History shows how dividend-focused investment strategies can provide sustainable income in a reflationary environment.
Chart Room: China has fewer reasons to be hawkish
China's short-end rates remain low despite earlier expectations for monetary tightening.
Chart Room: A Goldilocks spot for inflation-linked bonds
We see a sweet spot in inflation-linked bonds with maturities ranging from 1 year to 10 years.
Fed acknowledges change in reaction function
Fed reiterates guidance and maintains asset purchase programme, despite a significant upgrade to growth and inflation projections.
Market questions central bank credibility
Markets are testing central banks’ resolve to keep rates low.
Chart Room: Keep an eye on housing rents when tracking inflation
Some key considerations make us more constructive on US rents for the year ahead, particularly soaring home purchase prices.
Chart Room: Weakening dollar gives emerging markets a shot in the arm
Emerging markets may be helped further along by the weaker outlook for the US dollar.
Fixed income in 2021: Monetary policy to the rescue, but duration tantrums are possible
Central banks will want to keep financing costs low given high debt levels, but may not act before a duration tantrum.
Chart Room: Some sectors may be set for a margin squeeze
The latest reading from our monthly analyst survey shows which companies are struggling with inflationary pressure but also weaker pricing power.
The inflation puzzle and how to tackle it
Will inflation return despite dis-inflationary forces?
Swinging 60s inflation pattern due a comeback
The years between 1964-75, a time of fiscal expansion and low rates, shows why inflation might come back faster than some think.
Chart Room: Is disinflation lurking around the corner?
In a bullish signal, the bond market’s short-term expectations for US inflation are back near pre-crisis levels. But are investors being overly optimistic?
Chart Room: Emerging market currencies lag on inflation risks
EM countries are using some of the same monetary and fiscal measures as developed markets. But this could add to rising inflation and currency weakness.
Fidelity CIOs: Focus on resilience
Greater focus on resilience and sustainability is benefiting domestic economies and altering supply chains.
Inflation outlook: Disinflation for now, but future depends on policy choices
Inflation outlook: Disinflation for now, but future depends on policy choices
May's Rich Pickings podcast: The case against inflation
Why inflation will be some way off - and how portfolios are being adjusted as the old rules are torn up.
Fidelity CIOs: Effects of monetary explosion
The sheer scale of central bank action could store up problems for the future.
Inflation expectations close to nadir
Low Inflation expectations mean breakevens nolw look attractively priced
Fidelity CIOs: Dollar devaluation could be the end game from Fed actions
Fiscal and monetary stimulus could weaken the dollar and be inflationary.
China’s financial support targets second-order fallout from coronavirus
China’s healthcare workers have been struggling to contain the spread of coronavirus. Now, policymakers are grappling with the second-order financial effects.
Cool Heads: Ian Samson and Andrea Iannelli on growth and inflation
Ben Deane sets out what’s been driving inflation, Ian Samson explains his outlook for the coming months and Andrea Iannelli examines what it means for markets.
Hunting for yield in frontier markets: Egypt
When smaller frontier markets mature into benchmark names, early investors can earn attractive returns in these relatively niche, often overlooked places.
What Warren Buffett gets wrong about gold
Contrary to Warren Buffett’s complaints about gold, it’s constantly offering useful insights if you look closely enough.
China tiptoes down easing street with rate reform
While the Fed and ECB are signaling more rate cuts and quantitative easing to come, China’s central bank has been taking a more cautious approach.
Gold still has space to shine on
We see more upside for gold, thanks to a potent cocktail of falling interest rates, rising long term inflation expectations and heightening recession concerns.
The Fed remains firmly on hold
The overall message at the US Federal Reserve’s May meeting was clear and simple - it is firmly on hold for now.
EM outlook: For China and the Fed, old habits die hard
China and the US Federal Reserve are falling back on old habits, which should provide some desperately-needed comfort to emerging markets.
Forecasting markets in 2029: 10 years is a long time in finance
Long term forecasting and how Fidelity constructs its 10-year capital market assumptions .
Multi Asset Outlook 2019: Complacency on inflation stalks markets
Fidelity International's multi asset outlook for 2019 examines the risk of a shock to markets from higher-than-expected inflation.
GEAR levels show exuberant US economy
Recent economic data show an exuberant US economy, stabilisation in emerging markets and only a slight tick-down in Europe.
No surprises as the Fed sticks to the plan, for now
There were no surprises as the Fed stuck to the plan, and for good reason: data is strong and inflation on track.
A BoE rate hike is an unnecessary risk
This August, we expect the Bank of England (BoE) to stand and deliver only their second interest rate rise in the past ten years.
Analysts lift the lid on their sectors’ optimism
Experts from consumer industries, industrials and IT explain why we're seeing the sunniest Analyst Survey in years.
Analyst Survey sees upward pressure on costs and wages - but not on prices
The Fidelity Analyst Survey sees cost and wage pressures starting to increase in the next 12 months.
The changing nature of inflation
What does lower inflation for longer mean for the future dynamics of inflation indicators
Buckle opinion: Fed raises rates; can't be many in 2018
David Buckle's opinion on the Fed reserve rates decision
Easy days could soon be over: central bank policy normalisation
Easy monetary policy could soon be over, with huge consequences for debt, asset prices, inflation and much else.
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