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George Efstathopoulos
Blog 1 min read

Chart room: Japan is avoiding the worst of supply-side inflation

Chart room: Japan is avoiding the worst of supply-side inflation

George Efstathopoulos | 23 June 2022

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 2 min read

Fed delivers on the hint - hard landing risks have risen

The Fed delivered on hint to raise rates by 75bp to bring down inflation. We see increased risks of a hard landing and remain cautious on equities and credit.

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 2 min read

ECB: Too much too soon could be a riskier strategy

The European Central Bank lays out its tightening path.

Gita Bal
Blog 1 min read

Chart Room: Expectations around rising input costs are starting to moderate

Chart Room: Expectations around rising input costs are starting to moderate

Gita Bal + 1 other | 9 June 2022

Toby Gibb
Blog 1 min read

Chart Room: Valuations look more reasonable but there may be more to come

Chart Room: Valuations look more reasonable but there may be more to come

Toby Gibb | 31 May 2022

Charlotte Harington
Podcast 27 min listen

Rich Pickings podcast: 'The rules of the game have changed'

'The rules of the game have changed,' how should investors recalibrate for this new phase in markets?

Charlotte Harington + 4 others | 27 May 2022

George Efstathopoulos
Blog 2 min read

The last of the doves: BoJ unlikely to change course anytime soon

The last of the doves: BoJ unlikely to change course anytime soon

George Efstathopoulos | 19 May 2022

Andrew McCaffery
Podcast 25 min listen

CIO podcast: Growth risks and the safe harbours for portfolios

Richard Edgar speaks to Fidelity's Global Chief Investment Officer Andrew McCaffery about growth risks and safe harbours for portfolios.

Andrew McCaffery + 2 others | 16 May 2022

Miyuki Kashima
Article 3 min read

Now and zen: Japan’s quiet rise

Inflation may be a scourge elsewhere, but Japan is unruffled. Instead, the world’s third-largest economy is showcasing its appeal to investors.

Miyuki Kashima + 1 other | 15 May 2022

Leia Ma
Article 2 min read

Chart Room: As others hike rates, can China’s easing policy remain a cut above?

Cuts to the reserve requirement ratio remain China’s monetary policy weapon of choice. How they are wielded highlights the tightrope policymakers must walk.

Leia Ma + 3 others | 12 May 2022

Gita Bal
Article 5 min read

Corporates weigh the cost of long-term Russia exits

Our latest Fidelity International Analyst Survey suggests that for many companies Russia may be un-investable for years to come

Gita Bal + 2 others | 5 May 2022

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 3 min read

50, not 75, is the new 25 - Temporary relief or start of a pivot?

While the Fed will likely hike less than market expectations, we expect the hawkish stance to remain for now.

Catherine Yeung
Podcast 34 min listen

The Investor's Guide to China podcast: Supply Chains

Now over two years into this pandemic and the world is still battling some serious supply chain disruptions.

Catherine Yeung + 8 others | 28 April 2022

Ben Li
Article 7 min read

Re-globalisation in the age of Asia's supply chain crunch

Even the best-laid plans across the global manufacturing industry haven’t kept pace with a swiftly evolving siege of pressures on supply chains.

Ben Li + 5 others | 28 April 2022

Timothy Foster
Article 2 min read

Chart Room: Three structural factors making for stickier inflation

We don't expect global inflation rates to remain at today's levels, but we see several medium-term factors that should keep upward pressure on inflation.

Timothy Foster + 1 other | 27 April 2022

Tigran Manukyan
Article 1 min read

Chart Room: US yield curve could steepen further out

We are sceptical of the economic scenarios implied by the current pricing of the medium and long parts of the US yield curve.

Tigran Manukyan | 20 April 2022

Andrew McCaffery
Article 3 min read

Q2 Asia Investment Outlook: Region sees opportunity amid volatility

Fidelity International's investment outlook for the second quarter for Asia sees regional opportunity amid the global volatility

Andrew McCaffery | 10 April 2022

Andrew McCaffery
Article 5 min read

Q2 Investment Outlook: The “Grand Chessboard” reconfigured; stagflation risks intensify

The global order is reconfigured and stagflation risks intensify.

Andrew McCaffery | 10 April 2022

Alvin Cheng
Article 5 min read

China as a new safe haven?

Looming stagflation and war effects have global investors searching for havens. China represents a less conventional option with diversification benefits.

Alvin Cheng + 3 others | 4 April 2022

Fiona O'Neill
Article 6 min read

Titanium and planes: Ukraine conflict spells new hit for global supply chains

The invasion of Ukraine and lockdowns in Asia signal more disruption for corporate supply chains, just as companies thought they were recovering from Covid-19

Fiona O'Neill | 4 April 2022

Henk-Jan Rikkerink
Article 2 min read

Stagflationary dynamics still in the background

As the conflict in Ukraine moves into its fifth week, volatility looks set to continue and the outlook is marred by the threats to growth

Henk-Jan Rikkerink | 22 March 2022

Fiona O'Neill
Blog 1 min read

Chart Room: Ukraine war adds to inflation and brings further supply chain woes

As the appalling human cost of the war in Ukraine continues to grow, the knock-on effects for the global economy are also becoming clearer.

Fiona O'Neill + 4 others | 17 March 2022

Henk-Jan Rikkerink
Article 2 min read

High near-term uncertainty keeps us cautious

Lockdowns in China and the risk of recession in Europe are adding to the list of uncertainties facing investors.

Henk-Jan Rikkerink | 16 March 2022

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 2 min read

ECB faces huge dilemma as Russian invasion of Ukraine unfolds

The ECB’s accelerated reduction in asset purchases came as a surprise. There may be more changes to come.

James Richards
Article 2 min read

Chart Room: Russia’s war in Ukraine is making metals more precious at any price

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is causing severe disruption to European commodity markets, exacerbating low inventories and threatening outright shortages.

James Richards + 2 others | 10 March 2022

Andrew McCaffery
Article 3 min read

Searching for safe havens amid a stagflation shock

High inflation and damaged growth will define the macro outlook for several quarters

Andrew McCaffery + 3 others | 8 March 2022

Salman Ahmed
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: Ukraine war cuts rate hike expectations

Rate expectations have dipped downwards in Europe and the US, but we expect the Federal Reserve to stick to its hawkish narrative for now.

Salman Ahmed + 2 others | 3 March 2022

Henk-Jan Rikkerink
Blog 2 min read

Stagflation risks intensify as energy markets take centre stage

Stagflation risks intensify as energy markets take centre stage

Henk-Jan Rikkerink | 3 March 2022

Andrew McCaffery
Article 4 min read

Fidelity CIO: Stagflationary consequences of Ukraine crisis intensify policy dilemma

An environment of stagflation is increasingly likely to be maintained rather than to ease off over the coming months.

Andrew McCaffery | 24 February 2022

Romain Boscher
Article 2 min read

Ukraine invasion threatens bumpy landing for global stocks

While we are not yet talking about uncharted territory for stock markets, the Ukraine invasion fundamentally challenges the market environment.

Romain Boscher | 24 February 2022

Steve Ellis
Article 3 min read

Russian and Ukrainian debt comes under pressure

Our base case from a fixed income perspective is now for a more severe and protracted conflict.

Steve Ellis | 24 February 2022

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 1 min read

Cautious positioning required as Ukraine escalation adds to stagflationary risks

The overnight escalation of the Russia-Ukraine crisis is a worrying development with serious macro and market implications.

Carsten Roemheld
Podcast 40 min listen

In conversation: Survey results and investment implications

Our experts discuss the results of this year's Analyst Survey and explore the implications for investors.

Carsten Roemheld + 4 others | 21 February 2022

Gita Bal
Article 5 min read

Analyst Survey 2022: Inflation is back, but will it last?

Analysts expect price pressures to be higher in 2022, posing risks businesses haven't seen for over a decade.

Gita Bal + 1 other | 18 February 2022

Hiten Savani
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: Rising rates aren’t always bad for ‘low vol’ strategies

Rising bond yields don’t automatically mean bad news for low volatility strategies; understanding why requires a closer look at each cycle of rate increases.

Hiten Savani + 1 other | 17 February 2022

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: Fingers in the punch bowl

Central bankers seeking to deploy rate hikes against inflation risk collateral damage as tighter policy threatens already swollen debt servicing costs.

Patrick Graham
Article 1 min read

Chart Room: Covid recovery tops the list of themes for 2022

Latest survey of Fidelity analysts reveals companies' key concerns for the next 12 months.

Patrick Graham + 1 other | 3 February 2022

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Blog 3 min read

Fed turns from friend to foe

Pace and extent of tightening cycle depends on the inflation dynamics and the terminal level of real rates the economy and markets can digest.

Shashank Manchanda
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: Home is where the supply shortage is

Supply has never looked tighter in the US housing market. Construction backlogs persist and prices climb as homebuyers appear undeterred by looming rate hikes.

Shashank Manchanda + 2 others | 27 January 2022

Ben Traynor
Blog 3 min read

Chart Room: 2021’s long goodbye to transitory inflation

Five charts that show the inflationary impact of 2021’s reopening cycle

Ben Traynor | 16 December 2021

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 2 min read

Hawkish Fed enters 2022 with a catch

Three rate hikes in 2022 could be a challenge.

Martin Dropkin
Article 3 min read

Asia’s shifting growth model

Market leadership continues to evolve across Asia-Pacific, with potential inflation making some markets look more resilient than others.

Martin Dropkin + 3 others | 19 November 2021

Neil Cable
Article 4 min read

Coming of age

Inflation is back, the ‘new normal’ for office use is still unclear and the low-carbon transition is changing the relationship between landlord and tenant.

Neil Cable | 19 November 2021

Steve Ellis
Article 4 min read

Don’t get bearish on duration yet

Record debt levels mean central banks cannot normalise aggressively.

Steve Ellis | 19 November 2021

Salman Ahmed
Article 3 min read

The Catch-22 dynamic

In 2022 the major central banks will have to decide what to do about higher inflation, which we believe will be stickier than they currently expect.

Salman Ahmed | 19 November 2021

Andrew McCaffery
Article 2 min read

The policy paradox

2021 brought the recovery many had hoped for. But no one could describe it as ‘getting back to normal’.

Andrew McCaffery | 19 November 2021

Fidelity International
Article 3 min read

Asia’s shifting growth model

Market leadership continues to evolve across Asia-Pacific, with potential inflation making some markets look more resilient than others.

Fidelity International | 18 November 2021

Neil Cable
Article 4 min read

Coming of age

Inflation is back, the ‘new normal’ for office use is still unclear and the low-carbon transition is changing the relationship between landlord and tenant.

Neil Cable | 18 November 2021

Steve Ellis
Article 4 min read

Don’t get bearish on duration yet

Record debt levels mean central banks cannot normalise aggressively.

Steve Ellis | 18 November 2021

Salman Ahmed
Article 3 min read

The Catch-22 dynamic

In 2022 the major central banks will have to decide what to do about higher inflation, which we believe will be stickier than they currently expect.

Salman Ahmed | 18 November 2021

Andrew McCaffery
Article 2 min read

The policy paradox

2021 brought the recovery many had hoped for. But no one could describe it as ‘getting back to normal’.

Andrew McCaffery | 18 November 2021

Max Stainton
Article 1 min read

Chart Room: A 100-year view of inflation and asset returns

Long run inflation data show equities and bonds both perform better when inflation is falling. But what about today’s world of persistent price rises?

Max Stainton + 2 others | 4 November 2021

Anna Stupnytska
Blog 2 min read

The Fed finds flexibility in QE tapering

The Fed finds flexibility in QE tapering timeline

Anna Stupnytska | 3 November 2021

Terry Raven
Article 3 min read

Carbon pricing is coming but watch out for greenflation

Carbon pricing is an inescapable tool in the race to net zero, according to Fidelity International’s latest Analyst Survey.

Terry Raven + 2 others | 27 October 2021

Terry Raven
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: Is inflation here to stay?

Companies face a mix of transitory and structural inflationary pressures, according to Fidelity International’s latest analyst survey.

Terry Raven + 1 other | 7 October 2021

Terry Raven
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: Fidelity analysts temper expectations for margin growth

Fidelity International’s latest monthly analyst survey suggests that the outlook for margins is moderating from elevated levels.

Terry Raven + 1 other | 16 September 2021

Eric Wong
Article 4 min read

Asia eyes a tantrum-free taper this time

A faster-than-expected tapering by the Federal Reserve remains a risk for Asian bond markets, but investors have been reassured by the latest policy signals.

Eric Wong + 3 others | 7 September 2021

Paras Anand
Article 5 min read

A podium moment for Japan’s markets, too?

Japan stocks have long been consigned to tactical trading by global investors, but positive catalysts are emerging in a post-Covid inflationary world.

Paras Anand | 29 August 2021

Max Stainton
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: A pain in the bottleneck for supply chains

There are tentative signs that substantial supply chain bottlenecks in the US are starting to ease.

Max Stainton | 18 August 2021

Charlotte Harington
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: Bond markets tempt FAIT amid prospects for a steeper US yield curve

The market sees risks that the Fed will not accommodate a large inflation overshoot, but we think the yield curve may have flattened too far.

Charlotte Harington + 3 others | 12 August 2021

Terry Raven
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: Sentiment moderates amid rising costs and slower growth

Fidelity International’s latest monthly analyst survey reveals that the outlook for management sentiment is moderating as costs continue to rise.

Terry Raven + 1 other | 5 August 2021

Timothy Foster
Blog 1 min read

Chart Room: Gimme shelter (from inflation)

Shelter inflation continues to hold the key for forecasting inflation pressure in the US.

Timothy Foster + 2 others | 29 July 2021

Richard Edgar
Podcast 48 min listen

June's Rich Pickings podcast: Where next for inflation

"The market will wonder: is The Fed talking more aggressively but actually still way behind the curve?" says CIO Andrew McCaffery in June's Rich Pickings.

Richard Edgar + 6 others | 25 June 2021

Salman Ahmed
Blog 2 min read

Policy credibility remains key macro risk following hawkish Fed meeting

Chair Powell says Fed is considering beginning discussions on tapering.

Salman Ahmed | 17 June 2021

Terry Raven
Article 2 min read

Chart Room: Fidelity analysts expect inflationary pressures to keep rising for now

Inflationary pressures are picking up, according to Fidelity International’s latest monthly analyst survey.

Terry Raven + 1 other | 3 June 2021

Louise Fribourg
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: An uneven supercycle for commodities?

Most commodity prices have been strong this year, spurring talk of a potential supercycle. But the returns could be more dispersed from here.

Louise Fribourg + 3 others | 20 May 2021

Tim Foster
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: Rapid reopening drives inflation higher

US headline consumer prices have risen at the fastest pace in 13 years due to positive base effects, rising energy prices and the reopening of the economy.

Tim Foster + 1 other | 13 May 2021

Matthew Jennings
Blog 1 min read

Chart Room: Why dividends make sense in an inflationary environment

History shows how dividend-focused investment strategies can provide sustainable income in a reflationary environment.

Matthew Jennings + 2 others | 29 April 2021

George Efstathopoulos
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: China has fewer reasons to be hawkish

China's short-end rates remain low despite earlier expectations for monetary tightening.

George Efstathopoulos + 3 others | 22 April 2021

Timothy Foster
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: A Goldilocks spot for inflation-linked bonds

We see a sweet spot in inflation-linked bonds with maturities ranging from 1 year to 10 years.

Timothy Foster + 1 other | 18 March 2021

Salman Ahmed
Article 2 min read

Fed acknowledges change in reaction function

Fed reiterates guidance and maintains asset purchase programme, despite a significant upgrade to growth and inflation projections.

Salman Ahmed | 17 March 2021

Salman Ahmed
Blog 3 min read

Market questions central bank credibility

Markets are testing central banks’ resolve to keep rates low.

Salman Ahmed | 26 February 2021

Timothy Foster
Blog 1 min read

Chart Room: Keep an eye on housing rents when tracking inflation

Some key considerations make us more constructive on US rents for the year ahead, particularly soaring home purchase prices.

Timothy Foster + 1 other | 18 February 2021

Anthony Doyle
Blog 1 min read

Chart Room: Weakening dollar gives emerging markets a shot in the arm

Emerging markets may be helped further along by the weaker outlook for the US dollar.

Anthony Doyle + 3 others | 10 December 2020

Steve Ellis
Article 4 min read

Fixed income in 2021: Monetary policy to the rescue, but duration tantrums are possible

Central banks will want to keep financing costs low given high debt levels, but may not act before a duration tantrum.

Steve Ellis | 27 November 2020

Gita Bal
Blog 1 min read

Chart Room: Some sectors may be set for a margin squeeze

The latest reading from our monthly analyst survey shows which companies are struggling with inflationary pressure but also weaker pricing power.

Gita Bal + 4 others | 5 November 2020

Anna Stupnytska
Article 3 min read

The inflation puzzle and how to tackle it

Will inflation return despite dis-inflationary forces?

Anna Stupnytska + 2 others | 8 October 2020

Charlotte Harington
Blog 3 min read

Swinging 60s inflation pattern due a comeback

The years between 1964-75, a time of fiscal expansion and low rates, shows why inflation might come back faster than some think.

Charlotte Harington | 7 October 2020

George Efstathopoulos
Blog 1 min read

Chart Room: Is disinflation lurking around the corner?

In a bullish signal, the bond market’s short-term expectations for US inflation are back near pre-crisis levels. But are investors being overly optimistic?

George Efstathopoulos + 3 others | 24 September 2020

George Efstathopoulos
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: Emerging market currencies lag on inflation risks

EM countries are using some of the same monetary and fiscal measures as developed markets. But this could add to rising inflation and currency weakness.

George Efstathopoulos + 3 others | 10 September 2020

Andrew McCaffery
Blog 5 min read

Fidelity CIOs: Focus on resilience

Greater focus on resilience and sustainability is benefiting domestic economies and altering supply chains.

Andrew McCaffery + 1 other | 3 September 2020

Anna Stupnytska
Article 6 min read

Inflation outlook: Disinflation for now, but future depends on policy choices

Inflation outlook: Disinflation for now, but future depends on policy choices

Anna Stupnytska | 12 June 2020

Richard Edgar
Podcast 40 min listen

May's Rich Pickings podcast: The case against inflation

Why inflation will be some way off - and how portfolios are being adjusted as the old rules are torn up.

Richard Edgar + 3 others | 21 May 2020

Andrew McCaffery
Blog 4 min read

Fidelity CIOs: Effects of monetary explosion

The sheer scale of central bank action could store up problems for the future.

Andrew McCaffery + 1 other | 20 May 2020

Tim Foster
Blog 2 min read

Inflation expectations close to nadir

Low Inflation expectations mean breakevens nolw look attractively priced

Tim Foster + 1 other | 1 April 2020

Steve Ellis
Blog 4 min read

Fidelity CIOs: Dollar devaluation could be the end game from Fed actions

Fiscal and monetary stimulus could weaken the dollar and be inflationary.

Steve Ellis + 1 other | 25 March 2020

Lynda Zhou
Blog 4 min read

China’s financial support targets second-order fallout from coronavirus

China’s healthcare workers have been struggling to contain the spread of coronavirus. Now, policymakers are grappling with the second-order financial effects.

Lynda Zhou + 1 other | 4 February 2020

Fidelity International
Video 6 min watch

Cool Heads: Ian Samson and Andrea Iannelli on growth and inflation

Ben Deane sets out what’s been driving inflation, Ian Samson explains his outlook for the coming months and Andrea Iannelli examines what it means for markets.

Fidelity International | 24 October 2019

Paul Greer
Blog 2 min read

Hunting for yield in frontier markets: Egypt

When smaller frontier markets mature into benchmark names, early investors can earn attractive returns in these relatively niche, often overlooked places.

Paul Greer + 3 others | 15 October 2019

Paras Anand
Blog 3 min read

What Warren Buffett gets wrong about gold

Contrary to Warren Buffett’s complaints about gold, it’s constantly offering useful insights if you look closely enough.

Paras Anand | 2 October 2019

Alvin Cheng
Blog 3 min read

China tiptoes down easing street with rate reform

While the Fed and ECB are signaling more rate cuts and quantitative easing to come, China’s central bank has been taking a more cautious approach.

Alvin Cheng + 2 others | 2 October 2019

Oscar Hutchinson
Blog 2 min read

Gold still has space to shine on

We see more upside for gold, thanks to a potent cocktail of falling interest rates, rising long term inflation expectations and heightening recession concerns.

Oscar Hutchinson | 17 July 2019

Anna Stupnytska
Blog 1 min read

The Fed remains firmly on hold

The overall message at the US Federal Reserve’s May meeting was clear and simple - it is firmly on hold for now.

Anna Stupnytska + 1 other | 1 May 2019

Ian Samson
Blog 2 min read

EM outlook: For China and the Fed, old habits die hard

China and the US Federal Reserve are falling back on old habits, which should provide some desperately-needed comfort to emerging markets.

Ian Samson | 30 April 2019

David Buckle
Article 7 min read

Forecasting markets in 2029: 10 years is a long time in finance

Long term forecasting and how Fidelity constructs its 10-year capital market assumptions .

David Buckle | 16 January 2019

James Bateman
Article 3 min read

Multi Asset Outlook 2019: Complacency on inflation stalks markets

Fidelity International's multi asset outlook for 2019 examines the risk of a shock to markets from higher-than-expected inflation.

James Bateman | 26 November 2018

Ian Samson
Blog 1 min read

GEAR levels show exuberant US economy

Recent economic data show an exuberant US economy, stabilisation in emerging markets and only a slight tick-down in Europe.

Ian Samson + 1 other | 25 September 2018

Anna Stupnytska
Blog 1 min read

No surprises as the Fed sticks to the plan, for now

There were no surprises as the Fed stuck to the plan, and for good reason: data is strong and inflation on track.

Anna Stupnytska | 1 August 2018

Sajiv Vaid
Blog 3 min read

A BoE rate hike is an unnecessary risk

This August, we expect the Bank of England (BoE) to stand and deliver only their second interest rate rise in the past ten years.

Sajiv Vaid | 27 July 2018

Richard Edgar
Podcast 14 min listen

Analysts lift the lid on their sectors’ optimism

Experts from consumer industries, industrials and IT explain why we're seeing the sunniest Analyst Survey in years.

Richard Edgar | 21 February 2018

Raji Menon
Article 3 min read

Analyst Survey sees upward pressure on costs and wages - but not on prices

The Fidelity Analyst Survey sees cost and wage pressures starting to increase in the next 12 months.

Raji Menon | 20 February 2018

Anna Stupnytska
Blog 3 min read

The changing nature of inflation

What does lower inflation for longer mean for the future dynamics of inflation indicators

Anna Stupnytska | 14 December 2017

David Buckle
Blog 6 min read

Buckle opinion: Fed raises rates; can't be many in 2018

David Buckle's opinion on the Fed reserve rates decision

David Buckle | 14 December 2017

David Buckle
Article 9 min read

Easy days could soon be over: central bank policy normalisation

Easy monetary policy could soon be over, with huge consequences for debt, asset prices, inflation and much else.

David Buckle + 2 others | 11 December 2017

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