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Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 3 min read

Fed goes big but volatility ahead

The labour market has pushed the Fed into more aggressive action. What it does next still hangs in the balance.

Peiqian Liu
Article 2 min read

Emboldened BOJ takes hawkish tilt

The Bank of Japan has set itself firmly on the path of further policy normalisation. But how far and fast it will go from here remains an open question.

Peiqian Liu + 1 other | 31 July 2024

Salman Ahmed
Article 3 min read

ECB keeps door open to further rate cuts

European policymakers are likely to cut interest rates again this year, although the risks to the economic outlook and to the euro’s value have faded.

Salman Ahmed + 2 others | 7 June 2024

Salman Ahmed
Article 2 min read

Fed in a bind as 'narrative wars' take hold

Just over four months into 2024 and inflation has upended earlier forecasts. Salman Ahmed explains why that means more volatility ahead.

Salman Ahmed + 2 others | 2 May 2024

Max Stainton
Article 3 min read

ECB will cut soon, but US divergence can’t be ignored

The European Central Bank is now on course to cut interest rates before the Federal Reserve, but sooner or later it will be captive to events in the US

Max Stainton + 1 other | 11 April 2024

Salman Ahmed
Article 3 min read

Fed hopes not to get cornered before June

Fed hopes not to get cornered before June

Salman Ahmed + 2 others | 22 March 2024

Peiqian Liu
Article 2 min read

BOJ: Time to turn positive

The Bank of Japan took an historic step in its March meeting, ending the era of negative interest rates. But the tone of the central bank was cautious overall.

Peiqian Liu | 19 March 2024

Peiqian Liu
Article 3 min read

Lower targets, more stimulus for China

March’s National People’s Congress in China will almost certainly set a reduced growth target of 5 per cent.

Peiqian Liu + 2 others | 13 February 2024

Anna Stupnytska
Video 2 min watch

For the Fed, the last mile is the hardest

US policymakers have cooled expectations of an interest rate cut in March, and there are still big risks on the road to a painless soft landing.

Anna Stupnytska + 2 others | 1 February 2024

Peiqian Liu
Article 2 min read

Chart Room: China’s fiscal policy will do the heavy lifting to pick up growth

Despite a surprise cut to banks’ reserve requirement ratios, it’s fiscal policy that’s likely to take the leading role in driving Chinese growth in 2024.

Peiqian Liu + 1 other | 26 January 2024

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 2 min read

ECB in no rush to cut

While the odds on a soft landing for the developed world are rising, European growth is sluggish and we think the ECB will soon be under pressure to cut rates

Max Stainton
Article 3 min read

Fed deals its cards early on rates

Fed deals its cards early on rates

Max Stainton + 1 other | 19 December 2023

Paul Greer
Article 1 min read

Emerging markets give clues to Fed rate cut timing

Want to know when the Fed or ECB will start cutting interest rates? You could do worse than look at their emerging markets counterparts.

Paul Greer + 1 other | 8 December 2023

Lei Zhu
Article 4 min read

Axing the ‘ex-Japan’: a new era for Japanese bonds

Tailwinds from index reform to rate-hike expectations are lifting Japan's bond market from the doldrums, breathing new life into what was a dull backwater.

Lei Zhu + 3 others | 5 December 2023

Chris Ellinger
Article 2 min read

Chart Room: Cash, the once and future king

After a flood of capital into cash investments this year a look at forward interest rates suggests cash as king could reign for a while.

Chris Ellinger + 3 others | 2 November 2023

Max Stainton
Article 1 min read

Chart Room: A waiting game on rate transmission

The US continues to defy the gravity of rate hikes but a closer look at monetary policy transmission mechanisms suggests the effects are delayed, not denied.

Max Stainton + 1 other | 26 October 2023

Peiqian Liu
Article 2 min read

China signals growth resolve with trillion-yuan bonds

China has announced the issuance of 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) of special government bonds to help local governments struggling with debt.

Peiqian Liu | 25 October 2023

Steve Ellis
Podcast 35 min listen

Rich Pickings podcast: Higher rates - is the transmission mechanism broken... or just delayed?

Richard Edgar is joined by Fidelity experts to discuss if the transmission mechanism of central bank rate setting is broken, or just delayed.

Steve Ellis + 5 others | 20 October 2023

Edward Tajima
Article 4 min read

Japan’s reflating economy is kindling new hopes

Following decades of price stagnation and declines, Japan’s push to bring back “good inflation” is finally bearing fruit. But how sustainable is it?

Edward Tajima + 3 others | 3 October 2023

Max Stainton
Article 3 min read

Fed holds the line, hopes for a soft landing

Chairman Powell has set his sights on a gentler slowdown, but the impact of higher effective interest rates may hit consumers and companies hard next year.

Max Stainton + 1 other | 21 September 2023

Peiqian Liu
Article 2 min read

PBoC ups ante on moves to meet growth target

Chinese authorities are accelerating what to date has been a relatively incremental easing of policy to support growth. There will be more to come.

Peiqian Liu + 1 other | 18 September 2023

Salman Ahmed
Article 3 min read

The cost of higher for longer

With US labour markets still strong, the Federal Reserve is sticking to its “higher for longer” messaging. But the economy may see a shock next year.

Salman Ahmed + 2 others | 4 September 2023

Ashray Ohri
Article 2 min read

Chart Room: The Fed’s ‘blocked drain’ conundrum

Despite signs of inflation easing off its peak, interest rate hikes have yet to flow freely and fully throughout the system.

Ashray Ohri + 2 others | 31 August 2023

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 5 min read

No holidays for central banks: Where we think there’s more to come

A busy month for central banks delivered expected hikes in Europe and the US, but a surprise tweak to policy in Japan.

Richard Edgar
Podcast 41 min listen

Rich Pickings podcast: Challenging the narrative on recession, inflation and rates

Steve Ellis, Anna Stupnystka and Rosanna Burcheri compare where they diverge from the consensus views on recession risk and monetary policy.

Richard Edgar + 5 others | 26 July 2023

Andrew McCaffery
Podcast 17 min listen

CIO podcast: US inflation and China's recovery

Fidelity's Global Chief Investment Officer Andrew McCaffery discusses the latest US inflation data and China's recovery.

Andrew McCaffery + 2 others | 25 July 2023

Craig Topp
Article 2 min read

Chart Room: Leveraged borrowers feel the squeeze as debt costs rise

Chart Room: Leveraged borrowers feel the squeeze as debt costs rise interest cost ratios

Craig Topp + 1 other | 22 June 2023

Lei Zhu
Article 4 min read

Selling like hot chilli crab: a look at Singapore’s local bond boom

While debt issuance has slowed around the world, the Singapore dollar bond market is in a pocket of growth driven by policy tailwinds and an influx of funds.

Lei Zhu + 3 others | 19 June 2023

Holli Eastman
Podcast 18 min listen

CIO podcast: The Fed's pause and what comes next

CIO podcast: The Fed's pause and what comes next

Holli Eastman + 2 others | 16 June 2023

Peiqian Liu
Article 3 min read

BOJ: Patience is virtue

At its June meeting, the Bank of Japan has retained its dovish bias, and we believe markets will price in a lower possibility of an imminent exit from YCC.

Peiqian Liu + 1 other | 16 June 2023

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 4 min read

Central banks feel the heat of persistent inflation

Central banks feel the heat of persistent inflation

Peiqian Liu
Article 2 min read

Chart Room: Retail therapy for Japan’s ‘lowflation’ headache

The Bank of Japan has struggled to convince the public that inflation will stick. But recent data shows there could be a shift in consumers’ mentality.

Peiqian Liu + 2 others | 18 May 2023

Salman Ahmed
Article 3 min read

Central banks fighting yesterday’s battles as credit crunch looms

Central banks fighting yesterday’s battles as credit crunch looms

Salman Ahmed + 1 other | 4 May 2023

Lee Sotos
Article 4 min read

First Republic Bank and the outlook for the financial system

First Republic Bank and the outlook for the financial system

Lee Sotos + 3 others | 3 May 2023

Lucas Klein
Article 1 min read

Chart Room: Is the US labour market ready to crack?

The latest survey of Fidelity sector analysts shows expectations of layoffs by US and European companies over the next year.

Lucas Klein + 3 others | 30 March 2023

Richard Edgar
Podcast 18 min listen

CIO podcast: The recent banking turmoil and what's next

Fidelity International's Global CIO speaks to Richard Edgar about the recent banking turmoil.

Richard Edgar + 2 others | 29 March 2023

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 3 min read

Fed hikes into the banking storm as hard landing risks rise

As expected, the impact of the past fortnight’s banking troubles was writ large on the Federal Reserve’s March meeting. But it is still raising rates.

Steve Ellis
Article 3 min read

Suisse roll-up

An historic last-minute takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS offers an imperfect solution as regulators seek to contain broader systemic risk.

Steve Ellis + 2 others | 21 March 2023

Sherry Zhang
Article 4 min read

China’s banks have seen this show before

China’s banks have seen this show before

Sherry Zhang + 1 other | 20 March 2023

Ned Salter
Article 2 min read

Certain banks struggle but sector remains solid

Certain banks struggle but sector remains solid

Ned Salter + 1 other | 17 March 2023

Anna Stupnytska
Article 2 min read

A hawkish ECB stays the course despite market turmoil

The ECB stuck to its 50 basis point hike despite financial stability concerns. Tightening credit could hit the real economy earlier, and harder, than expected.

Anna Stupnytska | 16 March 2023

Gita Bal
Podcast 36 min listen

Rich Pickings podcast: Looking for cracks in the system after SVB

After the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Richard Edgar is joined by some of Fidelity's experts to discuss the fallout.

Gita Bal + 5 others | 15 March 2023

Steve Ellis
Article 2 min read

The Fed can’t paint over the cracks for long

Fidelity International's Chief Investment Officer for fixed income on what the SVB collapse means for the Fed and monetary policy.

Steve Ellis + 1 other | 15 March 2023

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Blog 2 min read

Inflation is slowing, the Fed may too

The opening data salvos of 2023 add to the case for the Federal Reserve to slow down on raising interest rates

Yi Hu
Article 3 min read

Chart Room: Looking back on an inflationary Catch-2022

Eight charts that capture the inflationary torment of 2022 and shine a light on what’s ahead.

Yi Hu + 1 other | 18 December 2022

Anna Stupnytska
Article 3 min read

ECB rates stance raises risks of financial instability for 2023

If the ECB matches its hawkish rhetoric with policy action, concerns about the bloc's periphery may return, adding to concerns for investors next year.

Anna Stupnytska | 16 December 2022

Richard Edgar
Podcast 34 min listen

Rich Pickings podcast: Outlook 2023 - navigating the polycrisis

Richard Edgar is joined by Fidelity's cross-asset investment team to discuss the 2023 Outlook.

Richard Edgar + 6 others | 16 December 2022

Salman Ahmed
Article 2 min read

Fed meeting: Powell provides another hawkish push

The dip in headline inflation numbers may have led the US Federal Reserve to slow down on policy in December, but longer-term risks to growth are piling up.

Salman Ahmed | 15 December 2022

Fiona O'Neill
Article 3 min read

Fidelity Analyst Survey: Inflation starts to peak

November’s survey of Fidelity’s 150 sector analysts highlights the pain businesses and households are experiencing, but that inflation is already easing.

Fiona O'Neill + 4 others | 7 December 2022

Salman Ahmed
Article 5 min read

New world, new playbook

We move into 2023 in a changed world, and the opportunities and challenges will be different for investors going forward.

Salman Ahmed | 23 November 2022

Steve Ellis
Article 3 min read

Bonds are back in town

For over a decade, one of the main cards in investors’ pack - solid and steadily yielding government bonds - has been off the table. That era has ended.

Steve Ellis | 7 November 2022

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 2 min read

Fed seeks to dampen ‘pivot mania’

Fighting inflation remains the Federal Reserve’s sole objective, with no pivot in sight.

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 2 min read

ECB doves back in charge despite jumbo hike

The European Central Bank's 75 basis point hike in October may be its last jumbo move as the threat of recession looms large over the euro area.

Richard Edgar
Podcast 29 min listen

Rich Pickings podcast: Keeping cool heads in volatile times

Portfolio Managers Charlotte Harington and Ian Fishwick join Richard Edgar to discuss what investors can do in these times of turmoil.

Richard Edgar + 5 others | 20 October 2022

Fidelity International
Article 3 min read

Bank in a bind over LDI volatility

The Bank of England appears to be drawing a line in the sand to force sections of the pension system to deleverage faster.

Fidelity International | 13 October 2022

Fidelity International
Article 7 min read

Navigating the strong dollar fallout

The dollar's gains are sending ructions through financial markets. We look at where and how the pressures are starting to be felt and what might halt the rise.

Fidelity International | 7 October 2022

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 4 min read

Right-wing Italian coalition brings more risks in Europe

Right-wing Italian coalition brings more risks in Europe

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 4 min read

UK macro under stress

The new UK government unveiled the promised "mini budget" last Friday that slashed taxes across the board.

Steve Ellis
Podcast 16 min listen

Fed hike: What you're missing from the inflation narrative

Fidelity's Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income Steve Ellis shares his views on the unexpected consequences of the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle.

Steve Ellis + 3 others | 23 September 2022

Chris Ellinger
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: The Fed walks a quantitative tightrope

The quantitative tightening of US financial conditions will inevitably strain parts of the banking system

Chris Ellinger + 2 others | 22 September 2022

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 2 min read

Fed matches hawkish rhetoric with hawkish action

Fed matches hawkish rhetoric with hawkish action

Ario Emami Nejad
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: Interest rates won’t fix the euro’s problems this time

Chart Room: Interest rates won’t fix the euro’s problems this time

Ario Emami Nejad | 7 September 2022

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 1 min read

Chair Powell bares his inflation teeth

Fed Chair Jerome Powell warns against loosening monetary policy early, noting that interest rates will have to keep rising to bring inflation under control.

Rick Patel
Article 1 min read

Chart Room: The plunge in US consumer sentiment

The soaring cost of living has pushed US consumer sentiment to an all-time low.

Rick Patel | 11 August 2022

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 1 min read

A dovish hike but Fed may be forced to do more

A dovish hike but Fed may be forced to do more as labour market remains strong

Richard Edgar
Podcast 18 min listen

CIO podcast: Preparing portfolios for a hard landing

Fidelity's Global Chief Investment Officer Andrew McCaffery speaks to Richard Edgar about economic headwinds and preparing portfolios for a hard landing.

Richard Edgar + 2 others | 25 July 2022

Ming Gong
Article 3 min read

China’s property downturn may have found a floor

The government’s will to reform a wayward real estate industry is balanced against the more urgent task of reviving a slowing economy.

Ming Gong + 3 others | 12 July 2022

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 2 min read

Fed delivers on the hint - hard landing risks have risen

The Fed delivered on hint to raise rates by 75bp to bring down inflation. We see increased risks of a hard landing and remain cautious on equities and credit.

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 2 min read

ECB: Too much too soon could be a riskier strategy

The European Central Bank lays out its tightening path.

Gita Bal
Blog 1 min read

Chart Room: Expectations around rising input costs are starting to moderate

Chart Room: Expectations around rising input costs are starting to moderate

Gita Bal + 1 other | 9 June 2022

Charlotte Harington
Podcast 27 min listen

Rich Pickings podcast: 'The rules of the game have changed'

'The rules of the game have changed,' how should investors recalibrate for this new phase in markets?

Charlotte Harington + 4 others | 27 May 2022

George Efstathopoulos
Blog 2 min read

The last of the doves: BoJ unlikely to change course anytime soon

The last of the doves: BoJ unlikely to change course anytime soon

George Efstathopoulos | 19 May 2022

Miyuki Kashima
Article 3 min read

Now and zen: Japan’s quiet rise

Inflation may be a scourge elsewhere, but Japan is unruffled. Instead, the world’s third-largest economy is showcasing its appeal to investors.

Miyuki Kashima + 1 other | 15 May 2022

Leia Ma
Article 2 min read

Chart Room: As others hike rates, can China’s easing policy remain a cut above?

Cuts to the reserve requirement ratio remain China’s monetary policy weapon of choice. How they are wielded highlights the tightrope policymakers must walk.

Leia Ma + 3 others | 12 May 2022

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 3 min read

50, not 75, is the new 25 - Temporary relief or start of a pivot?

While the Fed will likely hike less than market expectations, we expect the hawkish stance to remain for now.

Tigran Manukyan
Article 1 min read

Chart Room: US yield curve could steepen further out

We are sceptical of the economic scenarios implied by the current pricing of the medium and long parts of the US yield curve.

Tigran Manukyan | 20 April 2022

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 2 min read

Fed resurrects Volckerism - but for how long?

The US central bank came out fighting after delivering its first rise in rates this cycle, but it is likely to be constrained by a cocktail of risks to growth

Henk-Jan Rikkerink
Article 2 min read

High near-term uncertainty keeps us cautious

Lockdowns in China and the risk of recession in Europe are adding to the list of uncertainties facing investors.

Henk-Jan Rikkerink | 16 March 2022

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 2 min read

ECB faces huge dilemma as Russian invasion of Ukraine unfolds

The ECB’s accelerated reduction in asset purchases came as a surprise. There may be more changes to come.

Henk-Jan Rikkerink
Article 2 min read

Markets shift as Ukraine consequences spread

While the humanitarian impact of the war in Ukraine grows by the day, the economic effects are also mushrooming

Henk-Jan Rikkerink | 9 March 2022

Salman Ahmed
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: Ukraine war cuts rate hike expectations

Rate expectations have dipped downwards in Europe and the US, but we expect the Federal Reserve to stick to its hawkish narrative for now.

Salman Ahmed + 2 others | 3 March 2022

Henk-Jan Rikkerink
Blog 2 min read

Stagflation risks intensify as energy markets take centre stage

Stagflation risks intensify as energy markets take centre stage

Henk-Jan Rikkerink | 3 March 2022

Fiona O'Neill
Article 5 min read

Analyst Survey 2022: Mind the roadblocks

Fidelity International Analyst Survey 2022: Mind the roadblocks

Fiona O'Neill + 3 others | 18 February 2022

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: Fingers in the punch bowl

Central bankers seeking to deploy rate hikes against inflation risk collateral damage as tighter policy threatens already swollen debt servicing costs.

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Blog 3 min read

ECB joins the hawkish bandwagon

Hawkish pivot gives the Governing Council more policy flexibility.

Claire Xiao
Blog 3 min read

China walks a familiar tightrope as it targets recovery

While most other major economies are moving to tighten, the construction-fueled stimulus that Beijing has sought to avoid is suddenly back on the cards.

Claire Xiao + 2 others | 4 February 2022

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Blog 3 min read

Fed turns from friend to foe

Pace and extent of tightening cycle depends on the inflation dynamics and the terminal level of real rates the economy and markets can digest.

Shashank Manchanda
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: Home is where the supply shortage is

Supply has never looked tighter in the US housing market. Construction backlogs persist and prices climb as homebuyers appear undeterred by looming rate hikes.

Shashank Manchanda + 2 others | 27 January 2022

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 4 min read

Catch-2022 policy dilemma hits markets

Central bank policy stance and geopolitical risks put pressure on markets.

Andrew McCaffery
Podcast 13 min listen

CIO podcast: Why the Fed won't be so hawkish

Global Chief Investment Officer Andrew McCaffery on the outlook for central banks

Andrew McCaffery + 2 others | 24 January 2022

Claire Xiao
Article 2 min read

China cuts rates despite solid GDP report

As China's cycle increasingly diverges from the West, the latest set of policy easing measures speaks to economic headwinds but also signals more stimulus.

Claire Xiao + 4 others | 17 January 2022

Steve Ellis
Article 4 min read

Don’t get bearish on duration yet

Record debt levels mean central banks cannot normalise aggressively.

Steve Ellis | 19 November 2021

Henk-Jan Rikkerink
Article 2 min read

Waiting for more certainty

We are optimistic about equities over the next 12 to 18 months. Growth and earnings will be respectable but momentum is slowing.

Henk-Jan Rikkerink | 19 November 2021

Steve Ellis
Article 4 min read

Don’t get bearish on duration yet

Record debt levels mean central banks cannot normalise aggressively.

Steve Ellis | 18 November 2021

Henk-Jan Rikkerink
Article 2 min read

Waiting for more certainty

We are optimistic about equities over the next 12 to 18 months. Growth and earnings will be respectable but momentum is slowing.

Henk-Jan Rikkerink | 18 November 2021

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 2 min read

Fed signals a fast taper as 2022 becomes the new lift-off battleground

Fed signals a fast taper as 2022 becomes the new lift-off battleground

Eric Wong
Article 4 min read

Asia eyes a tantrum-free taper this time

A faster-than-expected tapering by the Federal Reserve remains a risk for Asian bond markets, but investors have been reassured by the latest policy signals.

Eric Wong + 3 others | 7 September 2021

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Blog 2 min read

Fed disconnects timelines for tapering and rate rises

At the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, Federal Reserve chairman Powell confirmed that the test of "substantial further progress" on inflation has now been met.

Charlotte Harington
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: Bond markets tempt FAIT amid prospects for a steeper US yield curve

The market sees risks that the Fed will not accommodate a large inflation overshoot, but we think the yield curve may have flattened too far.

Charlotte Harington + 3 others | 12 August 2021

Salman Ahmed
Blog 2 min read

Policy credibility remains key macro risk following hawkish Fed meeting

Chair Powell says Fed is considering beginning discussions on tapering.

Salman Ahmed | 17 June 2021

Morgan Lau
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: Stronger for longer for China’s renminbi?

Expectations for further renminbi appreciation have risen, but we think short-term gains could be capped from here.

Morgan Lau + 3 others | 10 June 2021

Martin Dropkin
Blog 4 min read

Credit risk at China’s SOEs in focus amid Huarong saga

China’s bond and equity markets have been rattled by concerns that state-owned enterprises could face greater default risk.

Martin Dropkin + 4 others | 4 June 2021

Anne Richards
Article 3 min read

Central banks need to take action now on climate change

Central banks need to take action now on climate change

Anne Richards | 7 May 2021

Matthew Jennings
Blog 1 min read

Chart Room: Why dividends make sense in an inflationary environment

History shows how dividend-focused investment strategies can provide sustainable income in a reflationary environment.

Matthew Jennings + 2 others | 29 April 2021

George Efstathopoulos
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: China has fewer reasons to be hawkish

China's short-end rates remain low despite earlier expectations for monetary tightening.

George Efstathopoulos + 3 others | 22 April 2021

Eugene Philalithis
Blog 1 min read

Chart Room: Equity volatility eases as Treasury yields rise

The VIX has fallen below a key technical level, suggesting a new wave of investor optimism.

Eugene Philalithis + 2 others | 15 April 2021

Nick Price
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: EM outperformance could be sustained, if commodities are a guide

This week’s Chart Room shows the historical correlation of EM equities with commodities, which suggests that the breakout could be sustained.

Nick Price + 1 other | 8 April 2021

Salman Ahmed
Article 2 min read

Fed acknowledges change in reaction function

Fed reiterates guidance and maintains asset purchase programme, despite a significant upgrade to growth and inflation projections.

Salman Ahmed | 17 March 2021

Max Stainton
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: Staying afloat amid a rising tide of debt

Central banks have been playing a key role in keeping higher debt loads affordable.

Max Stainton + 2 others | 25 February 2021

Fabio Riccelli
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: The return of the value super-cycle?

In this week’s Chart Room, we look at both sides of the long-standing debate between value and growth investment styles, as seen from both Europe and China.

Fabio Riccelli + 3 others | 28 January 2021

Stuart Rumble
Blog 1 min read

Chart Room: After the Gold Rush

Is it time to take profits in gold?

Stuart Rumble + 1 other | 21 January 2021

Steve Ellis
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: A liquidity tide for the record books

2020 brought us new high-water marks in the US for both money supply growth and the personal savings rate.

Steve Ellis | 13 January 2021

George Efstathopoulos
Blog 1 min read

Chart Room: Chinese stocks, playing catchup, finally retrace 2015 highs

But the rally in China’s main onshore index still lags its US and global counterparts.

George Efstathopoulos + 2 others | 7 January 2021

Anthony Doyle
Blog 1 min read

Chart Room: Weakening dollar gives emerging markets a shot in the arm

Emerging markets may be helped further along by the weaker outlook for the US dollar.

Anthony Doyle + 3 others | 10 December 2020

Salman Ahmed
Article 5 min read

Macro view 2021: Debt, the elephant in the room

As policymakers and investors grapple with their new reality, the elephant in the room they’ll have to confront will be how to manage the heavy public debt.

Salman Ahmed + 2 others | 27 November 2020

Alvin Cheng
Blog 3 min read

China bond defaults signal a coming of age as state safety net shrinks

Bond defaults by state-owned enterprises have rattled China’s onshore credit markets. We see this as an important if painful step in curtailing moral hazard.

Alvin Cheng + 1 other | 24 November 2020

Anna Stupnytska
Blog 1 min read

ECB signals further stimulus as double dip recession chances spike

Despite taking no action at the October meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) laid the groundwork for further easing at its next meeting in December.

Anna Stupnytska | 29 October 2020

George Efstathopoulos
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: Correlations boil and bubble 🎃 and may spell toil and trouble 🦇

In this follow-up special Halloween edition of Chart Room, we look at how correlations are casting a spell over markets.

George Efstathopoulos + 3 others | 29 October 2020

Anthony Doyle
Blog 1 min read

Chart Room: Government debt climbs to spooky heights

In this special Halloween edition Chart Room (part 1 of 2), we look at the frightening levels of government debt around the world.

Anthony Doyle + 2 others | 22 October 2020

Stuart Rumble
Blog 1 min read

Chart Room: Why growth still has room to grow in China equities

The valuation premium for China growth stocks versus value stocks hit a new all-time high, lifted by the consumer, tech and healthcare sectors.

Stuart Rumble + 2 others | 15 October 2020

George Efstathopoulos
Blog 1 min read

Chart Room: Is disinflation lurking around the corner?

In a bullish signal, the bond market’s short-term expectations for US inflation are back near pre-crisis levels. But are investors being overly optimistic?

George Efstathopoulos + 3 others | 24 September 2020

Anna Stupnytska
Blog 2 min read

Near-zero rates expected through 2023 amid Fed concern about the economy

Fed offers forward guidance following shift in inflation targeting framework.

Anna Stupnytska | 16 September 2020

George Efstathopoulos
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: Emerging market currencies lag on inflation risks

EM countries are using some of the same monetary and fiscal measures as developed markets. But this could add to rising inflation and currency weakness.

George Efstathopoulos + 3 others | 10 September 2020

Monica Li
Blog 4 min read

Chinese banks are due for national service

As governments around the world exhaust their policy arsenals to save economies, China is reaching for a secret weapon unrivaled by most countries.

Monica Li + 2 others | 31 July 2020

Anna Stupnytska
Blog 1 min read

Fed in a holding pattern, for now

Trajectory of the recovery remains uncertain despite better employment figures in May.

Anna Stupnytska | 10 June 2020

Stuart Rumble
Blog 1 min read

Chart Room: QE expectations vs. reality, market moves

Market expectations of future asset purchases by the Fed have an even greater influence than the purchases themselves.

Stuart Rumble + 2 others | 4 June 2020

Eric Wong
Article 5 min read

Central banks in emerging markets hop on the bond-buying bandwagon

EM central bankers are taking a page from the developed-market playbook and purchasing local bonds as a way to cushion the blow

Eric Wong + 4 others | 29 May 2020

Anne Richards

CEO update podcast: Anne Richards on resilience and reinvention

Fidelity CEO Anne Richards explores what has to change in supply chains, corporate aims, and capitalism itself.

Anne Richards + 2 others | 12 May 2020

Amit Goel
Article 4 min read

How India’s economy is navigating Covid-19

As the world begins to come out of lockdowns and economies normalise, India can offer bright spots for emerging market investors.

Amit Goel + 4 others | 7 May 2020

Anna Stupnytska
Blog 2 min read

ECB: Whatever it takes, a thousand times over

ECB introduces pandemic emergency refinancing operations.

Anna Stupnytska | 30 April 2020

Raji Menon
Blog 1 min read

Macro briefing: Central banks prepare for further action as economic outlook darkens

The Eurozone economy contracted at the fastest rate on record in Q1

Raji Menon | 30 April 2020

Andrea Iannelli
Blog 1 min read

Liquidity briefing: Spread levels improve

A market liquidity update from the Fixed Income team at Fidelity

Andrea Iannelli | 27 March 2020

Stuart Rumble
Blog 1 min read

Chart room: The dash for dollars

Currency basis swap rates reflect dollar liquidity squeeze.

Stuart Rumble + 2 others | 27 March 2020

Fidelity International
Blog 3 min read

China and its neighbours reboot supply chains

As China’s economy emerges from lockdown, activity across Asia’s sprawling network of factories, ports and logistics hubs is picking up.

Fidelity International + 1 other | 23 March 2020

Katsumi Ishibashi
Blog 4 min read

Bank of Japan’s coordinated easing signals more proactive asset purchases

Today’s move by the Bank of Japan to boost asset purchases underscores a globally coordinated effort by central banks to contain the coronavirus fallout.

Katsumi Ishibashi | 16 March 2020

Tim Foster
Blog 1 min read

Fed dusts off crisis playbook with massive liquidity injection

Ultra-low interest rates and asset purchases will be with us for a long time yet.

Tim Foster | 12 March 2020

Kate Howitt
Blog 3 min read

As gold’s surge draws wider interest, miners shine too

Gold's lustre is also rubbing off on the companies that dig it up from the ground.

Kate Howitt + 2 others | 12 March 2020

James Durance
Blog 2 min read

Will ECB's Lagarde reach for the bazooka to avoid European liquidity crisis?

Tomorrow Christine Lagarde, head of the ECB, gets her chance to calm markets. Will she reach for the bazooka?

James Durance | 11 March 2020

Anna Stupnytska
Blog 2 min read

UK Treasury and BOE unveil ‘comprehensive’ stimulus package to combat virus effects

BOE and Treasury action on the same day signals the policymakers’ preparedness to respond.

Anna Stupnytska | 11 March 2020

Andrew McCaffery
Video 9 min watch

Andrew McCaffery + 2 others | 10 March 2020

Anna Stupnytska
Blog 3 min read

Your move, governments

Markets are reacting to two shocks in one day: an oil price drop and coronavirus risk. They form a clear catalyst for fiscal policy action.

Anna Stupnytska | 9 March 2020

Anna Stupnytska
Blog 1 min read

Fed's emergency cut is a strong signal to markets

The US Federal Reserve has issued an emergency 50bps cut to allay coronavirus fears ahead of its monetary policy meeting in March.

Anna Stupnytska + 1 other | 3 March 2020

Paras Anand
Blog 2 min read

When the playbook stops working

Why did markets wait so long to sell off in the wake of the Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak?

Paras Anand | 24 February 2020

Lynda Zhou
Blog 4 min read

China’s financial support targets second-order fallout from coronavirus

China’s healthcare workers have been struggling to contain the spread of coronavirus. Now, policymakers are grappling with the second-order financial effects.

Lynda Zhou + 1 other | 4 February 2020

Wen-Wen Lindroth
Article 3 min read

Fed prolongs expansion for those left behind

Fed funds rate remains unchanged amid strong labour market.

Wen-Wen Lindroth + 1 other | 29 January 2020

Ian Samson
Blog 2 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator: Still strong but approaching the limit

The Fidelity Leading Indicator's acceleration is circling back towards zero after a period of strong improvement.

Ian Samson + 1 other | 14 January 2020

Katsumi Ishibashi
Blog 3 min read

Bank of Japan holds its firepower but stresses it is poised to fight if needed

Bank of Japan holds its firepower but stresses it is poised to fight if needed

Katsumi Ishibashi | 31 October 2019

Sajiv Vaid
Blog 2 min read

Low bond yields are here to stay, even if fiscal stimulus returns

Even if fiscal stimulus makes a return, we think low bond yields will stay because of central bank action and late-cycle effects

Sajiv Vaid | 30 October 2019

Andrea Iannelli
Article 3 min read

European Central Bank: Goodbye Mario, good luck Christine

ECB leaves rates unchanged at Draghi's final meeting.

Andrea Iannelli | 24 October 2019

Paul Greer
Blog 2 min read

Hunting for yield in frontier markets: Egypt

When smaller frontier markets mature into benchmark names, early investors can earn attractive returns in these relatively niche, often overlooked places.

Paul Greer + 3 others | 15 October 2019

Wen-Wen Lindroth
Blog 2 min read

Mounting risks in 2020, despite central banks’ best efforts

Mounting risks in 2020, despite central banks’ best efforts. Investors should be ready in case as the macroeconomic and political environments evolve.

Wen-Wen Lindroth | 4 October 2019

Alvin Cheng
Blog 3 min read

China tiptoes down easing street with rate reform

While the Fed and ECB are signaling more rate cuts and quantitative easing to come, China’s central bank has been taking a more cautious approach.

Alvin Cheng + 2 others | 2 October 2019

Katsumi Ishibashi
Blog 3 min read

Bank of Japan holds fire ahead of sales tax increase, but strikes a more dovish tone

The BOJ held steady and said it would pay “closer attention” to economic momentum and review economic and price trends at the next monetary policy meeting.

Katsumi Ishibashi | 19 September 2019

Alvin Cheng
Article 4 min read

No pain, no gain: Chinese defaults are rising and recovery rates are falling

Part of a white paper offering in-depth research on defaults in China - why they are happening and what investors should do about it.

Alvin Cheng + 4 others | 16 September 2019

Ian Samson
Blog 3 min read

Fed Chair Powell strikes the right balance at Jackson Hole

Probability of December rate cut has increased.

Ian Samson | 23 August 2019

Bryan Collins
Blog 3 min read

Is seven an unlucky number for China’s currency?

China’s renminbi weakened past the seven per US dollar mark for the first time in more than ten years.

Bryan Collins + 4 others | 5 August 2019

Paras Anand
Article 1 min read

Investment Outlook Q3 2019: A delicate balance

The Investment Outlook is our flagship quarterly outlook publication that outlines our views on all the major asset classes and details the 'house view'.

Paras Anand + 7 others | 25 July 2019

Oscar Hutchinson
Blog 2 min read

Gold still has space to shine on

We see more upside for gold, thanks to a potent cocktail of falling interest rates, rising long term inflation expectations and heightening recession concerns.

Oscar Hutchinson | 17 July 2019

Bill McQuaker
Blog 2 min read

Central banks keep the show on the road, for now

Equity and bond markets don’t agree on what we should expect for the second half of the year. How should investors position in light of these mixed signals?

Bill McQuaker | 26 June 2019

Ian Samson
Blog 1 min read

Fed flashes easing signals

The Federal Reserve kept rates on hold as expected and also signaled that cuts - not hikes - are around the corner, amid signs of weakening economic activity.

Ian Samson + 1 other | 19 June 2019

Ian Samson
Blog 1 min read

Central bank fears, calmer GEARs?

Our proprietary Gauges of Economic Activity in Real-Time (GEARs) show the latest Global GEAR looks stable and decently above its recent lows.

Ian Samson + 1 other | 19 June 2019

Alvin Cheng
Blog 3 min read

In Baoshang Bank takeover, China takes aim at moral hazard

The recent move by regulators in China to take over Baoshang Bank marks a significant event in the development and liberalisation of China’s capital markets.

Alvin Cheng + 1 other | 5 June 2019

Ian Samson
Blog 2 min read

EM outlook: For China and the Fed, old habits die hard

China and the US Federal Reserve are falling back on old habits, which should provide some desperately-needed comfort to emerging markets.

Ian Samson | 30 April 2019

Ian Samson
Blog 2 min read

EM outlook: Easier conditions, tougher growth

After a challenging end to last year, the start of 2019 has brought some tentative stability to emerging markets. But it is too early to issue the all-clear.

Ian Samson | 8 April 2019

Bill McQuaker
Blog 2 min read

For things to get better, they may have to get worse

The market rally continues. But after a decade of QE, is there a limit to how long markets will respond positively to the same old policies?

Bill McQuaker | 25 March 2019

Anna Stupnytska
Article 1 min read

The Fed's message is solidly dovish; for now

The Fed stuck to its solidly dovish message in March, in line with market expectations. However, it risks leaving itself little room for manoeuvre.

Anna Stupnytska | 20 March 2019

Bryan Collins
Blog 3 min read

A Goldilocks moment for China’s monetary policy, but watch for more easing and bond index inclusion

Two events are driving the outlook for China fixed income- easing monetary conditions and the expected inclusion of Chinese bonds in benchmark indexes.

Bryan Collins + 4 others | 14 March 2019

Ian Samson
Blog 2 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator: Red lights, not green shoots

Signs of more dovish central banks may have got markets more excited, but our FLI has not moved.

Ian Samson + 1 other | 11 March 2019

Anna Stupnytska
Blog 2 min read

Will the change in message come back to haunt the Fed?

The Fed's dovish message was a remarkable shift, and likely unnecessary as not much has changed over the past few weeks in terms of the economic outlook.

Anna Stupnytska | 30 January 2019

Eugene Philalithis
Blog 2 min read

Income and yield are not the same thing

Although higher rates imply higher income generation as yields rise, we have not seen income from coupons keep up with the rise in rates.

Eugene Philalithis | 17 January 2019

Eva Tam

Bull and bear cases for China in 2029

Fidelity analysts give bull and bear cases for consumption, financial, and property sectors in China in 2029

Eva Tam | 17 January 2019

George Efstathopoulos
Blog 4 min read

2019 China Outlook- Time to enter the tiger’s den?

We explore the opportunities in China equities and fixed income in 2019.

George Efstathopoulos + 3 others | 10 January 2019

Katsumi Ishibashi
Blog 3 min read

BOJ holds steady, with limited scope for any policy moves

BOJ holds steady, with limited scope for any policy moves

Katsumi Ishibashi + 1 other | 20 December 2018

Anna Stupnytska
Blog 2 min read

Fed delivers a hawkish surprise, with dovish elements

Fed delivers a hawkish surprise, with dovish elements

Anna Stupnytska | 19 December 2018

Ian Samson
Article 2 min read

China and emerging market GEARs deteriorate in December

Emerging market economic indicators deteriorate in December

Ian Samson | 19 December 2018

Ian Samson
Blog 3 min read

EM Outlook: It’s been a long time coming, but a change is going to come

Risks remain to the downside for emerging markets due to China’s slowing growth and toughening global conditions.

Ian Samson | 28 November 2018

Romain Boscher
Article 3 min read

Equities Outlook 2019: US corporate earnings drive the stock market story

Fidelity International's outlook for equities in 2019 shows how US corporate earnings growth will slow to around 8 or 9 per cent.

Romain Boscher | 26 November 2018

James Bateman
Article 3 min read

Multi Asset Outlook 2019: Complacency on inflation stalks markets

Fidelity International's multi asset outlook for 2019 examines the risk of a shock to markets from higher-than-expected inflation.

James Bateman | 26 November 2018

Bryan Collins
Blog 4 min read

China's easing has not been easy

China’s deleveraging drive has softened, but credit to private companies remains weak. Bigger banks could be pushed to step in.

Bryan Collins + 4 others | 20 November 2018

Paras Anand
Article 3 min read

Inverting the pyramid

Investors may be misunderstanding the central narrative defining the current market and are therefore at risk of missing opportunities.

Paras Anand | 14 November 2018

David Buckle
Blog 3 min read

The Fed offers anniversary gift 10 years after global financial crisis

Fed offers anniversary gift 10 years after global financial crisis

David Buckle | 26 September 2018

Anna Stupnytska
Blog 1 min read

Further Fed tightening could prove too much for the rest of the world

The Fed will have to strike a more cautious tone, slowing the pace of tightening next year - but we are not there yet.

Anna Stupnytska | 26 September 2018

Ian Samson
Blog 1 min read

GEAR levels show exuberant US economy

Recent economic data show an exuberant US economy, stabilisation in emerging markets and only a slight tick-down in Europe.

Ian Samson + 1 other | 25 September 2018

Paras Anand
Blog 2 min read

Ten years since the crisis: the risks have changed

Investors and policy makers have learned their lessons, but we may be looking in the wrong direction for the next dislocations.

Paras Anand | 31 August 2018

Katsumi Ishibashi
Blog 3 min read

No exit: Japanese banks continue to feel pain from BOJ’s easy policy

Japan’s banks need to innovate to thrive in the low interest environment rather than wait for the eventual end of the Bank of Japan’s easy monetary policies.

Katsumi Ishibashi | 29 August 2018

Andressa Tezine
Blog 2 min read

Turkey's policy response falls short

Turkey’s escalating financial crisis has raised concerns over contagion as selling has spread more broadly across emerging markets in recent days.

Andressa Tezine | 14 August 2018

Paul Greer
Blog 3 min read

Turkey crosses the Rubicon

Turkish markets spiral downwards with the lira now in a full blown crisis. The solutions are simple, but is there the political will to implement them.

Paul Greer | 10 August 2018

George Efstathopoulos
Blog 3 min read

Policy tweaks open new opportunities in China and Japan

Recent easing measures in China should support Asian high yield bonds, while we also see value in Japan financials bolstered by the BOJ's ETF purchases.

George Efstathopoulos | 6 August 2018

Anna Stupnytska
Blog 1 min read

No surprises as the Fed sticks to the plan, for now

There were no surprises as the Fed stuck to the plan, and for good reason: data is strong and inflation on track.

Anna Stupnytska | 1 August 2018

Katsumi Ishibashi
Blog 2 min read

The Bank of Japan fine-tunes monetary policy but sticks to aggressive easing

The Bank of Japan kept its easy monetary policy while tweaking its framework to give itself more flexibility, emphasising that normalisation is nowhere near.

Katsumi Ishibashi | 31 July 2018

Anna Stupnytska
Blog 1 min read

The ECB’s monetary policy is needlessly loose

The European Central Bank’s (ECB) unnecessarily loose monetary policy may leave it out of options when the next downturn comes.

Anna Stupnytska | 27 July 2018

Paul Greer
Blog 2 min read

Turkey’s interest rate hold is a policy mistake

Turkey’s inaction on the benchmark interest rate is a major policy mistake, undoing much of the good of the rate rises in Q2.

Paul Greer | 24 July 2018

David Buckle
Article 9 min read

Easy days could soon be over: central bank policy normalisation

Easy monetary policy could soon be over, with huge consequences for debt, asset prices, inflation and much else.

David Buckle + 2 others | 11 December 2017

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