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Macroeconomic update: Taking the elevator down and the stairs back up
We have downgraded our 2020 growth numbers for all three scenarios, across both developed markets and emerging markets.
European retail recovers, but luxury needs big spenders
It is still unclear time how much of this recovery is just pent-up demand that will subside and how much of it is sustainable as furlough support fades.
BoE will need to act again, with negative rates still a possibility
The Bank boosted its QE by £100bn
FLI takes another leg down despite lockdowns easing
The FLI now points to a quarterly contraction about 125 per cent of the magnitude of that seen in the depth of the GFC.
Macro briefing: EU Commission unveils historic aid package tied to Green Deal
The EU package is structured in the form of €500 billion of grants while the remaining €250 billion will be made available as loans.
Fund may open door to larger scale debt mutualisation
The fund marks a major step towards a stronger common fiscal policy as it will be administered through the EU’s budget and financed by EU-issued debt.
EU recovery fund: A step forward, but time is running out
Germany and France have agreed to some form for debt mutualisation but the rest of the EU states will have to agree
Macro briefing: More stimulus expected, but will it be enough?
New figures show that more than 2.9 million workers applied for unemployment benefits, taking the total count to 36.5 million applications in two months.
CEO update podcast: Anne Richards on resilience and reinvention
Fidelity CEO Anne Richards explores what has to change in supply chains, corporate aims, and capitalism itself.
Macro briefing: German court ruling may reduce ECB firepower
The German court ruling poses long-term risks to ECB's flexibility
Macro briefing: Central banks prepare for further action as economic outlook darkens
The Eurozone economy contracted at the fastest rate on record in Q1
Fed holds fire for now, but ready for further action
The Fed Reserve made it clear that it is prepared to intervene further if required
Macro briefing: ECB relaxes collateral rules to accept junk bonds
ECB’s decision comes ahead of S&P Global Ratings’ review of Italy’s credit rating
Macro briefing: Fed extends its reach to support employment
The Fed is now using all creative tools at its disposal to mitigate the surge of layoffs in the US.
Tenant resilience is key as rental recovery rates fall
Real estate investors are fast having to learn that sustainability of cashflow is perhaps just as important, if not more so, than location.
EU’s €1 trillion Green Deal could aid post-crisis recovery
The EU's Green Deal faces political and financial challenges, but the direction of travel is clear.
Tackling liquidity challenges in equity and bond markets
Despite recent central bank action, market liquidity is expected to be tight in the near term while volatility remains high.
Fed unleashes unprecedented QE, but unclear if Congress will act soon enough
The Fed has launched QE infinity, committing to unlimited purchases of government bonds and mortgage backed securities.
Bolder Fed action needed to restore market confidence
The Fed needs to increase the size and scope of its existing QE programme.
March's Rich Pickings podcasts: CIOs and portfolio managers on navigating stormy markets
March's Rich Pickings podcasts: CIOs and portfolio managers on navigating stormy markets
ECB: Not another “whatever it takes” moment, but a smart move nonetheless
The ECB unveiled a targeted stimulus package but kept rates unchanged.
February's Rich Pickings podcast: Coronavirus - the view from China
"Unorthodox policy may have to meet an unorthodox situation," says head of fixed income in Asia, Bryan Collins, in this month's Rich Pickings.
January's Rich Pickings podcast: Counting the cost of a pandemic
"I think concern is right, I'd avoid hysteria; we need to ground ourselves in the data," says Director of Equities Terry Raven in this month's Rich Pickings.
ECB’s Strategic Review gives investors plenty to think about
The ECB held interest rates steady, but the focus of the meeting was on the announcement of its new Strategic Review.
Sterling investment grade set to outperform US/Euro bonds
With reduced political uncertainty, fundamental credit considerations will once again frame returns for the sector.
Fidelity Leading Indicator: Marginal cooling but still positive
The global economy is still expected to grow into 2020, but at a subdued pace
Trade wars supercharge China’s drive to tech self-sufficiency
The trade war with the US is driving China to double down on strengthening its tech infrastructure and building self-sufficient supply chains.
Silver linings for European high yield despite coupon erosion
High yield investors are still getting compensated relative to other assets and low rates have allowed for easier refinancing and improved issuer liquidity.
China's Singles Day ecommerce extravaganza is pushing offline
China's Singles Day is now targeting more online/offline integration and deeper penetration of lower-tier cities
UK high yield turns a corner as no-deal Brexit worries fade
UK high yield bonds - which have been shunned by investors in recent years - look increasingly attractive.
Low bond yields are here to stay, even if fiscal stimulus returns
Even if fiscal stimulus makes a return, we think low bond yields will stay because of central bank action and late-cycle effects
Further Fed easing could create opportunities in credit
As the Fed eases, credit investors should prepare for widening spreads that offer better entry points, increasing their odds of producing excess returns.
Negative interest rates: a bold but dangerous experiment
In an environment of negative interest rates, it could be growth companies not negative yielding bonds, which are the 'safe' investment choice.
Timing of Trump impeachment could further weaken global economy
Trump's impeachment comes as the latest ISM data shows US manufacturing firmly in contraction territory.
Fed cuts by another 25 bps, but a cut doesn't cut it anymore
The 25 bps rate cut was widely expected, so markets should be relatively unmoved.
FLI: Another solid month indicates that global recession fears are overblown
Our Fidelity Leading Indicator boosts hopes that the worst is firmly behind us, and that the next move in global growth will be to the upside.
Volatility could create opportunities to buy high-quality cyclicals
Investors should consider rotating away from overbought defensive assets into largely-ignored cyclical growth stocks.
Fed’s broken policy dial could benefit Asia investors
Political pressure on the Fed to cut rates is only likely to increase.
Gold glitters amid equity market sell-off, and still has room to run
We expect gold's status as a traditional safe haven will continue to support the price or even drive it higher.
Fed opens the door to a further reduction as it makes 25 bps 'insurance' cut
After hiking nine times in the past four years, the Fed has reversed course
ECB signals further cuts and a new round of QE in September
The dovish outlook, coupled with prospects of a further stimulus, is expected to fuel the demand for yield that we have seen so far this year.
China data improves but nascent recovery could halt further stimulus
Although the latest GDP figures show the worst may be behind us, there is no room for policy complacency.
Outlook bullish for short-term oil prices after surprise OPEC supply cuts
Brent crude oil to trade in the upper half of the $60-80 range for the rest of the year
Draghi’s dovish speech signals further central bank easing
The case for immediate easing by the Fed is however weak.
Fidelity Leading Indicator: Stronger data indicate a recovery
Improvement in global growth has been reassuringly broad-based
China’s April data disappoints market expectations of resilience
Data on industrial production, retail sales and investment all surprised to the downside.
Why we're calling it Sustainable Investing, not ESG
The term ‘ESG’ struggles to capture the full scope of stakeholders and the off-spreadsheet areas that an organisation needs to manage.
Investors to pressure Turkey on economic reforms amid lira volatility
Markets will be seeking a more conventional approach from Turkey on its economic reforms.
For things to get better, they may have to get worse
The market rally continues. But after a decade of QE, is there a limit to how long markets will respond positively to the same old policies?
Emerging market GEARs outperform sluggish Europe and Japan
Global GEARs suggest stability over the past two months, after a volatile end to 2018.
Fidelity Leading Indicator: Red lights, not green shoots
Signs of more dovish central banks may have got markets more excited, but our FLI has not moved.
What China’s new stimulus measures mean for investors
The Chinese government has announced tax cuts worth 2 trillion yuan and higher spending. But will this boost the slowing economy?
What does the US-China trade-talk extension mean for investors?
While headlines suggest that the US and China are inching closer to a deal, it’s clear that there are still a range of questions that need to be addressed.
The $118 billion investment opportunity hidden in the sea
Regulation and globalisation are creating new investment opportunities in the global ballast water treatment systems market.
European corporate earnings fall without boost from utilities, energy firms
The half-way mark for the European earnings season provides a good opportunity for an update on what we have seen so far and what conclusions can be drawn.
The Spanish imposition: Santander’s non-call sets precedent in AT1 bond market
Santander's decision to not repay its AT1 bond will make the market focus much more on call economics and post-call valuations.
January's Rich Pickings: Managers become buoyant despite dismal data
"Everyone always underestimates the resilience of the US economy," says Chief Investment Officer of Multi Asset James Bateman.
December's Rich Pickings podcast: Christmas Special - risk on
"Being neutral just doesn't feel active enough to take advantage of the opportunities,” says CIO of Multi Asset James Bateman in this month's Rich Pickings.
There’s a new sector in town - and it will change tech stock trading
The GICS rejig has shifted the likes of Facebook from IT, telecom and consumer discretionary into a newly formed communication services sector.
Challenging consensus: market fears of a US recession may be overdone
Markets may be overly pessimistic over an imminent US recession given the recent uptick in real wages.
Bonds are back as a diversifier as US treasuries end 2018 on a positive note
Santa’s rally did not come for stocks this year, but government bonds have had a better run up to Christmas and the year is not over yet.
Bitter end to 2018 will not stop US bull market run
Despite recent stock market corrections, the secular run in the US market is set to continue.
‘Yellow vest’ reforms to give a strong boost to French consumers
Purchasing power will record the strongest growth in 2019 since the financial crisis, probably at levels above 2 per cent year on year.
Fidelity Leading Indicator: Deceleration after frontloading on US tariff worries
Our proprietary Fidelity Leading Indicator (FLI) now shows a deceleration trend, in contrast with the tentative stabilisation we had seen previously.
Retail's fall from grace: salutary lessons for real estate investors from the nation of shopkeepers
Fidelity believes UK retail real estate assets will see a fall in value of 20 to 70 per cent depending upon the nature and quality of the assets.
All eyes on Buenos Aires for make-or-break G20 summit
The odds of a truce or no deal at the G20 are balanced.
November's Rich Pickings podcast: Why Brexit matters (and why it doesn't)
“Markets are underestimating the case for a no deal,” says Markets Analyst Charlotte Harington in this month’s Rich Pickings.
Eurozone, China GEARs show deterioration in November
US GEAR continues its strong run, even as China is at its weakest since April 2015 while the UK is at its lowest level since the referendum result.
CIO views: The correction that averted a capitulation
Recent market volatility shook investors' confidence, with many questioning if the end of cycle was near. Our CIOs give their views.
Fidelity Leading Indicator - hit by 'front-loading'?
Our FLI is still in the growth below trend and decelerating quadrant. We still have to assess the impact of 'front-loading' on any nascent positivity.
Merkel’s decision to step down as CDU leader could be positive for Germany
Market impact should be small and positive. For investors, there's no reason to be nervous. Recent volatility will bring opportunities.
The future of retirement won't be a cliff-edge goodbye to work
Retirement is a recent concept, and is bound to change as older people live longer and remain more active. The corporate world will have to follow suit.
Three Shanghai workers, three very different approaches to saving for retirement
A day in the life of three people in Shanghai and a deep dive into how they’re saving for their future.
The DB-DC pensions shift is imminent. Its consequences will be dramatic.
When the majority of new pensioners will be drawing defined benefit pensions, many will be in for a rude awakening.
Podcast: How to survive the demographics revolution
Significant shifts are underway in the pattern of global populations. What do these changes mean for societies, companies, individuals, and investors?
Trade wars revisited: US politics and impact on China
The US-China trade war relates to the US electoral cycle and to Trump’s image as ‘deal maker’, and also has a longer-term impact on China.
Tech stocks sell off, but fundamentals remain intact
Tech stocks fared badly in the recent sell off, but fundamentals remain intact.
Market friendly Bolsonaro’s first round win in Brazilian election should calm investor nerves
Far-right candidate's first-round win could boost markets
India’s fundamentals remain strong despite falling rupee stoking EM fears
Volatile emerging markets have raised concerns that India could be the next casualty in the EM rout
South African land expropriation will exacerbate economic woes and increase volatility
South Africa's proposed land expropriation is likely to add to souring of emerging market sentiment and trigger further sell off in the country's assets
GEAR levels show US economic exuberance could continue into H2
Our Gauges of Economic Activity in Real-Time (GEAR) show that US GEAR levels of 4 per cent almost exactly matched the second quarter GDP print.
After a trip to Italy, market pricing looks too bearish
A recent road-trip to Italy has led me to believe that investors’ perception of the current situation is too bearish, especially around the budget.
China’s upgrades to Bond Connect should broaden foreign participation
China's Bond Connect allows foreign investors to access the interbank bond market more easily. New upgrades should remove remaining barriers to adoption.
What I’ve learned: Bryan Collins on collaboration, teams and bellboys
Bryan Collins, Asia credit, on how a frustrating luggage mishap at a top Sydney hotel led to a life-long lesson.
What I've learned: Aruna Karunathilake on checklists, quant beginnings and a stock pick gone bad
Aruna is a self-confessed numbers guy who learnt that data alone isn’t all it’s cracked up to be.
In depth in eight minutes: what the Fidelity Analyst Survey reveals
Capex, China and ESG feature highly as the global sentiment indicator ticks up.
On the ground in China: automation and higher wages
Neil Gough explores a Chinese warehouse adapting to the future.
As good as it gets: corporate sentiment rises to new highs
Company executives are the most optimistic they've been in five years, reports Fidelity’s 2018 Analyst Survey.
The return of capex: growth across all sectors and regions
We expect CEOs to spend on adding capacity, deepening digitisation or embarking on renovation of plant and machinery.
Analyst Survey sees upward pressure on costs and wages - but not on prices
The Fidelity Analyst Survey sees cost and wage pressures starting to increase in the next 12 months.
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